CBOT Soy Outlook on Monday: Down 3-5 cents; e-CBOT, lacks supportive features

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are seen starting Monday's day session lower, in step with overnight declines amid the absence of fresh supportive features to underpin prices.

 

Soybean futures are called to open 3 to 5 cents lower.

 

In e-CBOT trade, January soybeans were 3 1/2 cents lower at US$6.64 1/2 and March was 5 1/2 cents lower at US$6.76 per bushel.

 

The market is poised for a lower opening, with favorable South American crop conditions, poor technical conditions and sharply lower palm oil futures setting the stage for the declines, analysts said.

 

In the absence of any fresh fundamental news, technical considerations will remain featured, with futures remaining in a liquidation mode as fund managers continue to trim long positions, a CBOT floor analysts said.

 

Pre-crop report positioning is expected to generate some choppy action, as traders gear up for the plethora of data to be released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Friday, he added.

 

A technical analyst said the next upside price objective for March soybeans is to close prices above solid resistance at US$7.00 a bushel. The next downside price objective is closing prices below solid support at the December low of US$6.57 1/2.

 

First resistance for March soybeans is seen at US$6.85 and then at last week's high of US$6.91 1/2. First support is seen at Friday's low of US$6.70 1/2 and then at US$6.65.

 

The DTN Meteorlogix weather forecast said scattered thundershowers are in Argentine crop areas possible Wednesday into Thursday but in general this still appears to be a drier weather pattern for this region. Meanwhile, no significant concerns are presently seen at this time across Brazil's crop belt, Meteorlogix reports.

 

In deliveries, a total of 232 delivery notices were posted against January soybeans. The last trade date assigned was Jan. 3. 197 delivery notices were posted against the January soyoil futures. The last trade date assigned was Jan. 4. Soymeal delivery notices totaled 521 lots, with the house account at Bunge Chicago stopping 372 lots. The last trade date assigned was Jan. 3.

 

On tap for Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its weekly export inspection report at 11:00 a.m. EST. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will release its weekly commitment of traders report at 3:30 p.m. EST.

 

In other news, India's soymeal exports in December 2006 are estimated at 506,300 metric tonnes, up from 492,950 tonnes a year earlier, according to data issued Monday by the Solvent Extractors Association. Exports of soymeal during April to December rose to 2.15 million tonnes from 1.64 million tonnes a year earlier.

 

Rotterdam soybeans and soymeal were higher. European vegoils were mixed.

 

In overseas markets, soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled a tad higher Monday, in line with Friday's gains in CBOT soybean futures. The May 2007 contract rose RMB4 to settle at RMB2,832 a metric tonne. Crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended sharply lower Monday as the market, already under pressure from the general weakness in global commodities, succumbed to better-than-expected weather conditions and bearish technical indicators, analysts said. The benchmark March CPO contract ended down MYR77 at MYR1,884 a metric tonne.