January 7, 2008

Canada's 2007-08 rapeseed exports seen down, crush up
 

Canada's rapeseed export projections for the 2007-08 crop year are slowly being downsized, but strong domestic processor demand was expected to help limit the impact on Canada's ending stocks picture, people in the industry said.

Strength in the Canadian dollar and high ocean freight rates were linked to the downsizing of Canada's rapeseed export program.

At the start of the 2007-08 season, which runs from August to July, it was thought that strong demand and available supply would result in Canada's exporting between 5.7 million and 6.0 million tonnes of rapeseed.

In the past week, the Hamburg-based newsletter "Oil World" estimated Canada's rapeseed export program at 5.860 million tonnes, down from a forecast of 6.0 million made by the newsletter in November.

"Canada's rapeseed exports to date have been a bit disappointing," said Chris Beckman, an oilseed analyst with the market analysis branch of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

Beckman said he had been expecting Canada's rapeseed exports in 2007-08 to hit 5.300 million tonnes, but said he was considering lowering that forecast to reflect the slow sales to date. Canada exported 5.477 million tonnes of rapeseed during the 2006-07 crop year.

Mike Jubinville, an analyst with farmer advisory service ProFarmer Canada, agreed that rapeseed sales to date have been much slower than anticipated.

"I was expecting rapeseed exports from Canada to at least hit 5.400 million tonnes, but that may no longer be a very realistic target," he said.

Tonney Tryhuk, vice president and manager of commodity trading for RBC Dominion Securities Inc., was forecasting Canada 2007-08 rapeseed exports at only 4.800 million tonnes.