January 4, 2011

US analyst cuts Argentina's soy yield forecast

US crop analyst Michael Cordonnier said Tuesday (Jan 4) he had lessened his estimate of Argentine 2010/11 soy production for a third straight week due to the country's hot and dry weather.

He reduced his estimate to 45 million tonnes from 48 million tonnes. Cordonnier also cut his estimate of Argentine corn production to 19.5 million tonnes from 21.5 million.

"There is a potential for lower soybean acreage and yield. It is getting late in the season for planting. The window is still open but it's getting smaller," Cordonnier added.

He said Argentine corn production would be hit by the crop going through the key development stage of pollination – when yields are determined – under adverse weather conditions.

"A lot of the crop pollinated under adverse conditions and cannot gain back yields even with improved weather," he said, adding that planting was more than 50% complete in the main growing areas of the country.

Cordonnier left unchanged his estimate of the 2010/11 soy crop in Brazil at 67 million tonnes.