January 5, 2009
CBOT Soy Outlook on Monday: Flat-to-down 3 cents; outside market influences
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are seen starting Monday's day session with a steady to lower undertone, influenced by outside market pressure.
CBOT soybean futures are called steady to 3 cents lower.
In overnight electronic trading, March soybeans finished one cent higher at US$9.78. March soymeal was US$0.90 lower at US$299.30 per short tonne, while March soyoil ended 30 points higher at 34.18 cents per pound.
General commodity pressure amid strong gains in the U.S. dollar index coupled with a loss of bullish technical momentum have futures poised to attract selling pressure, said Don Roose, president U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.
"Soybeans are a mature market technically, and with outside markets serving as an anchor on prices and improved crop weather in southern Brazil, futures are finding some pressure," Roose added.
However, continued buying interest from China remains an underpinning feature, with traders keeping a close eye on fund activity ahead of expected index fund rebalancing in commodities later in the week.
A technical analyst said market bulls have gained near-term technical momentum recently as a four-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for March soybeans is to produce a close above major psychological resistance at US$10.00 a bushel. The next downside price objective is to produce a close below last week's low of US$9.36.
First support is seen at Friday's low of US$9.70 and then at US$9.60. First resistance is seen at Friday's high of US$9.93 1/4 and then at US$10.00.
The DTN Meteorlogix weather forecast said Argentina's Cordoba province and possibly Sante Fe may see a few more thundershowers during the week, little otherwise. Stress to corn and soybeans will continue, especially with highs well into the 90s Fahrenheit Monday and Tuesday.
In Brazil, showers hit most soybean areas late last week but the western soybean areas of Rio Grande Do Sul were on the lower end of the range, Meteorlogix said. This week looks to be drier and warmer again.
On tap for Monday, U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its weekly export inspections report at 11:00 a.m., EST. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is scheduled to issue its weekly commitment of traders report at 3:30 p.m., EST.
In deliveries, January soybean deliveries totaled 228 lots. A customer account at Man Professional Clearing issued 144 lots, while stoppers were scattered across various commission houses. The last trade date assigned was Dec. 23.
January soyoil deliveries totaled 1,660 lots. A customer account at Man Professional Clearing issued of 917 lots, while stoppers were scattered among various commission houses. The last trade date assigned was Dec. 31.
In overseas markets, soybean futures traded on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange settled higher Monday, tracking broad gains in global commodities and equities markets. The benchmark May, 2009 soybean contract settled up RMB47, or 1.4% higher at RMB3,413 a metric tonne.
