January 4, 2008

 

US to contest with Brazil as top beef exporter this year while China and EU up imports

 

 

World beef trade analysts estimate Brazil to boost exports by 1 million tonnes to 2016, yet the global market will highly be contested by the US as it exports more to EU, following EU restrictions on Brazilian beef.

 

Partial closure of EU market may slow Brazil's progress unless the country can tap on high potential new markets such as Russia, Cuba, Malaysia and China.

 

US beef exports are expected to rise this year, replacing Brazilian imports. The US Meat Export Federation said it does not compete directly with Brazilian beef, operating instead at higher quality and price levels.

 

The weak US dollar can also entice more importers for US beef.

 

Previously, US has been big net importer of beef, but its production this year is expected to grow faster than consumption, and exports could grow from 500,000 tonnes in 2006 to 1.5 million tonnes by 2016, unless curtailed by higher feed prices.

 

Meanwhile, Australia's production is likely to slow down due to droughts, leading to decline of exports. New Zealand's beef exports are also predicted to stagnate.

 

Argentina is unlikely to beat its record level of exports in 2005 due to higher export taxes and partial export bans introduced by its government to curb inflation.

 

Canada is seen to increase its beef production but it will ship mostly to the US market.

 

China is expected to produce as much as the US or Brazil, but output will be offset by its ever growing demand, thus making it a major importer.

 

Generally, a strong global beef market is expected as EU switched from being an important beef exporter to a net importer.

 

Decreasing beef production is further expected due to dwindling dairy cattle numbers and reduction of incentives for suckler cow herds.