January 3, 2011

 

India's wheat output to exceed expectations

 

 

India will likely reap more wheat than the government's estimate this crop year despite late sowings, a top scientist said Friday (Jan 7).

 

The South Asian nation will have ample supplies of the staple grain to help fight stubbornly high food prices.

 

"The government estimates a record 82 million tonnes of wheat in the crop year through June, but the output will at least touch that mark. It [the government's estimate] is very conservative," said S.S. Singh, project director at the state-run Directorate of Wheat Research.

 

Higher output will likely ensure there is no local shortage of the grain and help cool food inflation that has accelerated at 14.44% in the week ended December 18. But, it is unlikely to bridge a global shortfall after an unprecedented drought in Russia and floods in Australia.

 

India has also been building its grain stocks before it finalises a food security law to give grains to the poor at a fraction of market prices. Though the country has more wheat than the buffer required under local rules, the government has been extremely cautious on releasing the grain to the open market and allowing its export as such steps reduce its stocks.

 

In India, wheat sowing starts in October-November, but was delayed in some regions this year because prolonged monsoon rains pushed back the harvest of the summer-sown crop. A delay in sowing can lower crop yields, but higher acreage this is year is likely to compensate for that.

 

Singh said the area under wheat will, in all likelihood, be more than the government's estimate of 28.5 million hectares this year, which means that the output will also be higher.

 

Earlier this month, Farm Secretary P.K. Basu said higher plantings and conducive weather in the wheat-growing regions will ensure a record crop.

 

The area under wheat this year has risen 4.4% until Dec. 24 to 26.41 million hectares, according to government data.

 

"The current spell of light rain is good for the crop," Mr. Singh said, adding that he expects most of the sowing to be completed by the first week of January.

 

While there are no concerns regarding the wheat crop now, Mr. Singh said favorable weather during the key grain-filling season around the third week of March in India's bread basket of Punjab and Haryana states could boost output prospects further.

 

Unusually warm weather in last March and April had shrunk the grain size and the country harvested 80.71 million tonnes of wheat last crop year, below the government's earlier estimate of 82 million tonnes.