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How disease and recession rebalanced world swine meat supply, demand and trade

ASF decimated Asian hog herds more than it did consumption. Covid-19 dented western pork consumption, but not its production. The net result is a huge, China-centric increase in the global swine meat trade.

China and the pork exporting Continent

Stagnant domestic consumption, protectionist feed policies, two disease outbreaks and trade politics turned Europe's swine sector into a China-destined export powerhouse.

Plagues, pigs and a powerful dragon: China's dominates the swine meat trade

World pork exports are booming but without China, they would have stagnated for a second consecutive year. Devastating swine sector misfortunes give Beijing the power to decide who will enjoy export-led growth.
How disease and recession rebalanced world swine meat supply, demand and trade
China and the pork exporting Continent
Plagues, pigs and a powerful dragon: China's dominates the swine meat trade
LATEST
Thursday, April 30, 2020
ASF, Covid-19 and Vietnam's beleaguered swine sector
Industry was struggling with ASF-induced swine inflation and shortages when corona virus struck, making matters worse. New price controls to extend an ongoing import surge.
Friday, January 31, 2020
ASF's impact on Vietnamese pork production and meat trade
Pork and poultry prices and imports set new records as feed output, corn purchases fall short of projected levels. Strongly rebounding domestic production, a preference for freshly slaughtered pork may minimize swine meat imports by the mid-2020s –but trade politics may give foreign chicken a long-term market advantage ...
Tuesday, January 21, 2020
Grain & beans yesterday, pork & cheese tomorrow: The US-China trade deal's uneven impact on American agribusiness
Soybean farming profits will enjoy a partial recovery but meat and dairy are the new trade agreement's main beneficiaries.
Friday, December 6, 2019
Did China's swine market fever finally break?
Even after falling 23% in one month, hogs still cost 135% more than in December 2018. Despite a nascent inventory recovery and surging imports, Chinese New Year demand will firm up prices. Government plays a role in deflating prices but a rapid recovery requires years of exceptionally high swine farming profits.
Thursday, November 21, 2019
No fat pigs here. Only Olympic athletes! How livestock genetics transformed swine and boosted their productivity
The genetic engineering of livestock is agribusiness's most misunderstood technological frontier. Shortly after animals were domesticated 10,500 years ago, farmers noticed some swine, poultry or cattle yielded more meat, milk, eggs or offspring than others.
Monday, November 18, 2019
Once Europe, later Ukraine, Russia last year, China tomorrow? Brazilian pork's new export dependency
High export prices, booming shipments, low feed costs drive recovery. Delayed China export approvals, stagnant shipments to other countries make for a mixed performance.
Friday, August 30, 2019
China's Re-booted Poultry Sector, Version 2.0: Rising chickens, falling pigs and new eating trends
African Swine Fever is re-launching China's once vibrant poultry sector –and radically restructuring the eating habits of a traditionally red meat eating nation.
Friday, August 9, 2019
Bad but could be worse: African Swine Fever spreads into Vietnam
China's southern neighbor is now experiencing ASF deaths and mass swine cullings. Domestic meat lines, feed output are all impacted, as are imports of meat and feed crops. Recovery is expected to be quicker and easier than it will be for China but a pork import trend could also be starting.
Thursday, July 25, 2019
It's not just African Swine Fever! How ten years of setbacks derailed China's feed and livestock boom
Animal diseases and food safety scandals have devastated one formerly fast-growing Chinese protein line after another -and none has yet recovered to previous output levels or grown at rates once taken for granted.
Friday, May 24, 2019
African Swine Fever Infects The World Pork Market
Exports skyrocket, production nosedives and trade flows change as the world's largest swine market faces a 13 to 19 million tonne pork shortfall.
Friday, April 19, 2019
Worst case scenario materializes for China's ASF-plagued swine sector
ASF-induced hog mortality may exceed the combined swine inventories of the US, Canada, Brazil, Germany and Spain. Worst estimates are now just average, market signals to grow more pork are being ignored and meat imports are skyrocketing.
Thursday, March 21, 2019
Five Asians, one Latino and much uncertainty: How six nations redefined (and saved) the world pork trade
185 of 193 nations are importing less pork than they did in 2005 but swine meat has never been more popular. Optimistic growth fundamentals are made volatile by trade wars and a disease epidemic.
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
A dark Year of The Pig for China's swine sector? Is something bigger at work?
Will the swine sector follow dairy and poultry and become the third livestock line afflicted by stagnant growth? What are the implications for world agribusiness?
Friday, October 19, 2018
Trade wars, beans and Chinese pork
China's import tax on US soybeans inflated soymeal costs and made their availability a bigger concern than high domestic corn prices. This is causing pork import volumes to increase at a time when they were expected to fall.
Friday, September 7, 2018
Beef, pork redefine Japan's changing appetite for meat
After years of stagnation, red meat consumption is making a comeback but poultry's longrun ascendancy is still in place. Restaurants increasingly drive consumption trends and imports.
Video >
Technical Paper >
Differential effects of DON in swine and poultry
Friday, October 23, 2020
Deoxynivalenol (DON, vomitoxin) is the most common trichothecene Fusarium mycotoxin detected globally in contaminated raw materials and feeds. A recent (2019) Trouw Nutrition Globa ...
Impact of two mycotoxins deoxynivalenol and fumonisin on pig intestinal health
Friday, October 23, 2020
Mycotoxins are secondary metabolites of fungi that grow on a variety of substrates. Due to their high consumption of cereals and their sensitivity, pigs are highly impacted by the ...
A wide overview on mycotoxin risk management
Friday, October 16, 2020
Effective management of mycotoxins is key for animal production, especially with the trends moving towards antibiotic reduction or even antibiotic free production. There are differ ...
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