HOT TOPICS

Realistically assessing China's rapid swine sector recovery

Hog herds, pork production can't fully recover by 2022 but pre-ASF levels of swine meat output will be achieved at least one year ahead of previous estimates.

Winners, losers and impending competition in the world pork trade

Europe made the most of China's ASF driven import boom but nations with fast growing meat demand will be at an advantage –if they can get past COVID-19 lockdowns.

3.5 million tonnes of pork looking for a new home

China's pork import boom has peaked and intense market share competition is just starting.
Realistically assessing China's rapid swine sector recovery
Winners, losers and impending competition in the world pork trade
3.5 million tonnes of pork looking for a new home
LATEST
Tuesday, February 23, 2021
China gives, China takes away, and the west must look to its own pork markets
From 2010 through 2020, world pork exports grew at a 6.7% annually and by 5.48 million tonnes, to 11.37 million tonnes. Without China, those same exports would have increased by only 1.4% annually, increased a mere 336,000 tonnes and totaled a mere 6.22 million tonnes in 2020.
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
How disease and recession rebalanced world swine meat supply, demand and trade
ASF decimated Asian hog herds more than it did consumption. Covid-19 dented western pork consumption, but not its production. The net result is a huge, China-centric increase in the global swine meat trade.
Thursday, April 30, 2020
ASF, Covid-19 and Vietnam's beleaguered swine sector
Industry was struggling with ASF-induced swine inflation and shortages when corona virus struck, making matters worse. New price controls to extend an ongoing import surge.
Friday, January 31, 2020
ASF's impact on Vietnamese pork production and meat trade
Pork and poultry prices and imports set new records as feed output, corn purchases fall short of projected levels. Strongly rebounding domestic production, a preference for freshly slaughtered pork may minimize swine meat imports by the mid-2020s –but trade politics may give foreign chicken a long-term market advantage ...
Tuesday, January 21, 2020
Grain & beans yesterday, pork & cheese tomorrow: The US-China trade deal's uneven impact on American agribusiness
Soybean farming profits will enjoy a partial recovery but meat and dairy are the new trade agreement's main beneficiaries.
Wednesday, January 15, 2020
China and the pork exporting Continent
Stagnant domestic consumption, protectionist feed policies, two disease outbreaks and trade politics turned Europe's swine sector into a China-destined export powerhouse.
Monday, January 13, 2020
Plagues, pigs and a powerful dragon: China's dominates the swine meat trade
World pork exports are booming but without China, they would have stagnated for a second consecutive year. Devastating swine sector misfortunes give Beijing the power to decide who will enjoy export-led growth.
Friday, December 6, 2019
Did China's swine market fever finally break?
Even after falling 23% in one month, hogs still cost 135% more than in December 2018. Despite a nascent inventory recovery and surging imports, Chinese New Year demand will firm up prices. Government plays a role in deflating prices but a rapid recovery requires years of exceptionally high swine farming profits.
Thursday, November 21, 2019
No fat pigs here. Only Olympic athletes! How livestock genetics transformed swine and boosted their productivity
The genetic engineering of livestock is agribusiness's most misunderstood technological frontier. Shortly after animals were domesticated 10,500 years ago, farmers noticed some swine, poultry or cattle yielded more meat, milk, eggs or offspring than others.
Monday, November 18, 2019
Once Europe, later Ukraine, Russia last year, China tomorrow? Brazilian pork's new export dependency
High export prices, booming shipments, low feed costs drive recovery. Delayed China export approvals, stagnant shipments to other countries make for a mixed performance.
Friday, August 30, 2019
China's Re-booted Poultry Sector, Version 2.0: Rising chickens, falling pigs and new eating trends
African Swine Fever is re-launching China's once vibrant poultry sector –and radically restructuring the eating habits of a traditionally red meat eating nation.
Friday, August 9, 2019
Bad but could be worse: African Swine Fever spreads into Vietnam
China's southern neighbor is now experiencing ASF deaths and mass swine cullings. Domestic meat lines, feed output are all impacted, as are imports of meat and feed crops. Recovery is expected to be quicker and easier than it will be for China but a pork import trend could also be starting.
Thursday, July 25, 2019
It's not just African Swine Fever! How ten years of setbacks derailed China's feed and livestock boom
Animal diseases and food safety scandals have devastated one formerly fast-growing Chinese protein line after another -and none has yet recovered to previous output levels or grown at rates once taken for granted.
Friday, May 24, 2019
African Swine Fever Infects The World Pork Market
Exports skyrocket, production nosedives and trade flows change as the world's largest swine market faces a 13 to 19 million tonne pork shortfall.
Friday, April 19, 2019
Worst case scenario materializes for China's ASF-plagued swine sector
ASF-induced hog mortality may exceed the combined swine inventories of the US, Canada, Brazil, Germany and Spain. Worst estimates are now just average, market signals to grow more pork are being ignored and meat imports are skyrocketing.
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Technical Paper >
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