December 22, 2011

Global forecast for grain supplies in 2011-12 revised up



Forecast for global grain supplies for 2011-12 has been revised up by 0.6% from the previous month's estimate, according to the USDA on December 9, 2011.


Total production for the current year is expected to reach 2.8 billion tonnes, up 2.5% year on year, with increased supplies forecast for wheat, coarse grain and rice. According to the USDA, the worldwide production of coarse grains (includes corn, barley, oats and sorghum) in 2011-12, which accounts for 50% of global feed grain production, is forecast to increase 4.3%, to 1.15 billion tonnes. The increased estimate for coarse grain production was largely due to higher output from China, forecast to reach 198.1 million tonnes.


For the US, coarse grain production is expected to decline 2.1% on year ago level, to 323.26 million tonnes, with reduced estimates for corn, barley and oats. However, despite the lower production, US season-average farm prices for corn, sorghum and barley have also been revised down, to US$5.90-US$6.90/bushel, US$5.70-US$6.70/bushel and US$5.20-US$5.80/bushel, respectively.


Global coarse grain usage for feed in 2011-12 is forecast to increase 2.5% year on year, to 662.91 million tonnes, underpinned by higher usage in China (8.1%), Brazil (5.5%), Russia (74%), Australia (8.9%), Japan (4.6%), Mexico (3%) and Argentina (6.1%). In contrast, coarse grain usage for feed is expected to decrease in the US (5.1%), Canada (3.7%) and EU27 (4.1%).


World wheat production in 2011-12 is expected to increase 5.7% on the previous year, to a record 688.97 million tonnes, with higher output in major exporting countries, including Australia, Canada and Europe.

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