Thai shrimp production is expected to rise by 15% in 2016 to 300,000 tonnes from this year's expected 260,000-tonne output.

This, despite being singled out by Thailand's Kasikorn Research Centre as among the five sectors facing "difficult challenges" in 2016, according to The Nation newspaper.

"Next year is expected to be a brighter year for the Thai shrimp industry as production increases after Thailand totally eliminates the shrimp disease", said Somsak Paneetatyasai, president of the Thai Shrimp Association. He was referring to early mortality syndrome, or EMS, which has afflicted Thai shrimp farms since 2012.

In the 10 months through October, Thai shrimp exports decreased by just 1.21% to 127,871 tonnes, although export value decreased more substantially by 14.43% to 44.25 billion baht (US$1.2 billion).

However, Thailand faces the risk of being given a "red card" by the European Union under its illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing regulations, Kasikorn Research said. It now has a "yellow card", which has tripled seafood import tariffs.

If Thailand receives a red card, its shrimp exports next year could fall by 7.7%, said Kevalin Wangpichayasuk, assistant managing director of Kasikorn Research.

Even if it maintains yellow-card IUU status, Kasikorn Research said shrimp exports are still expected to decline in 2016, the fifth year in a row that they will have fallen.

Thai shrimp exports this year are expected to reach 65 billion baht ($1.8 billion), a 9.8% decline from last year. Exports were down 5 per cent in 2014.