December 17, 2008


Global corn trade seen to fall 16 percent

Global corn trade in 2008-09 (October-September) is forecast to fall 900,000 tonnes this month to 80.7 million, down 16 percent from record world corn trade estimated for 2007-08.


Projected lower feed demand has reduced forecast corn imports by 300,000 tonnes each for Chile and Vietnam, and 200,000 tonnes for Syria.


Brazilian corn exports for 2008-09 are expected to increase 500,000 tonnes this month to reach a record of 10 million tonnes, backed up competitive Brazilian corn prices due to large corn supplies and a weakening exchange rate.


US corn exports, however, fell 1.5 million tonnes this month to 46 million tonnes. The pace of sales and shipments to date were slow, and buyers saw little incentives to purchase forward as prices decline. As of December 4, the US exported 8.8 million tonnes, less than half of previous year's record sales.


The late US corn harvest was reflected by census corn exports of only 3.6 million tonnes in October and export inspections of only 3.2 million tonnes in November. US corn export sales are expected to increase when US producers market their corn more aggressively and competition from EU feed wheat becomes less intense.


US 2008-09 sorghum exports are trimmed 200,000 tonnes this month to 3.3 million tonnes. Slow sales and shipments, as well as strong competition from Australia are expected to limit US sorghum exports to Japan.


Indian corn exports are expected to fall 500,000 tonnes this month to only one million tonnes, as domestic prices are too high compared to world prices, making overseas markets less attractive.


Serbia's corn exports are expected to increase 250,000 tonnes this month to one million tonnes due to declining local feed demand. Russia's corn exports forecast for 2008-09 also doubled this month to 300,000 tonnes due to the large crop.

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