December 15, 2008

Soy crush rates for November in the National Oilseed Processors Association's monthly soy crush report is expected to decline to about 139.6 million bushels from the previous report, according to a survey of industry analysts.

The report of the Washington-based group is scheduled to be released this week.

Estimates for the report ranged from as low as 137 million bushels to as high as 142.9 million bushels. In the previous report, crush for October was measured at 143.4 million bushels. Analysts said the crush would drop by about 3.8 million bushels in the November report.

Analysts anticipate a decline in the crush due to sluggish domestic and export demand for soymeal, analysts said.

The inability to dispose of soymeal coupled with slow farmer selling served as bearish influences on US crush rates, said Anne Frick, senior oilseed analyst with Prudential Bache in New York.

Slow farmer selling of cash soy since prices have retreated has added to the slower crush, but less feed demand has played a key role in the process.

However, AgResource president Dan Basse sees the crush stabilizing amid better soy availability and the potential for a pick-up in domestic and export demand. The current crush pace falls in line with the US Department of Agriculture's revised crush estimate Thursday, he added.

Meanwhile, NOPA soyoil stocks in November are expected to increase by 121 million pounds to 2.105 billion pounds from the 1.984 billion reported in October. Estimates ranged from as low as 1.969 billion pounds to as high as 2.487 billion pounds.

Nevertheless, despite the higher average for analyst estimates, many believe soyoil stocks will hold steady or show a modest decline in unison with crush rates.