December 15, 2008


CBOT Soy Outlook on Monday: Up 15-17 cents on outside market support



Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are seen starting Monday's day session higher, supported by strength in outside markets.


CBOT soybean futures are called 15 cents to 17 cents higher.


In overnight electronic trading, January soybeans ended 17 1/2 cents higher at US$8.71 1/2. January soymeal was US$4.40 higher at US$262.10 per short tonne, while December soyoil ended 75 points higher at 31.67 cents per pound.


The macro economic picture will give support to prices, with weather concerns for South American crops aiding the higher theme as well, said Don Roose, president U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.


The U.S. dollar index is lower and crude oil and stock index futures are higher in early action.


Solid underlying export demand and outlooks for a pickup in soymeal demand for livestock amid freezing central U.S. temperatures is also supportive, Roose added.


Light spillover support from corn, as that market garners carryover strength from Friday's supportive acreage estimates is expected to strengthen prices also. Nevertheless, traders are expected to maintain a cautious approach, as the uncertainty of the global economy limits traders willingness to take on added risk heading toward the holidays.


A technical analyst said the next upside price objective for January soybeans is to push and close prices above psychological resistance at US$9.00 a bushel. The next downside price objective is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at US$8.00 a bushel.


First resistance for January soybeans is seen at last week's high of US$8.65 3/4 and then at US$8.75. First support is seen at US$8.50 and then at US$8.42.


The DTN Meteorlogix said Argentina's major corn and soybean areas look to remain drier and warmer than normal during the next 10 days, reducing available soil moisture for these crops.


In Brazil, showers through the northern growing region will favor developing crops, especially as temperatures cool to more normal levels.


In other news, Brazilian farmers have planted 92% of the new 2008-09 soybean crop as of Dec. 11, consulting firm AgRural said Friday. AgRural said that this is slightly below 95% at the same time in 2007 and above 85% on Dec. 4. The consultancy estimated that Brazilian farmers will plant 22 million hectares for the 2008-09 crop.


The National Oilseed Processors Association says 139.4 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in November, down from 143.4 million in October on par with the average analyst estimate of 139.6 million. The range of pre-report estimates was 137 million to 142.9 million. Soyoil stocks were pegged at 2.042 billion pounds, up from 1.984 billion, but below the average analyst estimate of 2.105 billion. The range of estimates was 1.969 billion pounds to 2.487 billion pounds.


In overseas markets, China's soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled higher Monday, led by strong gains in soymeal prices. The benchmark May 2009 soybean contract settled RMB65 higher at RMB3,086/tonne, or up 2.2%.


China imported 410,000 metric tonnes of soyoil in November, up 18.5% from a year earlier, according to preliminary data issued by the General Administration of Customs Monday.


Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower Monday, falling off highs as supportive leads from higher exports were offset by unwinding of positions to take profits, trade participants said. The benchmark February contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR5 lower at MYR1,576 a metric tonne, off an intraday high of MYR1,630/tonne.

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