December 13, 2008


CBOT Soy Review on Friday: Beans end lower; outsides weigh



Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade ended lower Friday, backpedaling after testing both sides of unchanged, with bearish outside market influences applying pressure.


CBOT January soybeans finished 2 1/2 cents lower at US$8.54.


January soymeal settled US$1.40 higher at US$257.70 per short tonne. January soyoil finished 80 points lower at 30.92 cents per pound. Macroeconomic factors remain the key driver of prices, with the volatile ups and downs of crude oil and equity markets promoting two-sided action, analysts said.


Futures stumbled out of the starting block, falling in step with a sharp slide in crude oil and the stock market. However, as those markets pulled off their lows and corn surged, soybeans found their footing as well, traders said.


Underlying export demand and uncertain South American production were supportive features. However, talk of a large potential jump in 2009 U.S. acreage applied pressure, until prices climbed to stay in contact with corn. Corn rallied on private acreage estimates, and soybean futures were lifted amid concerns about a potential acreage battle developing into 2009, traders said.


U.S. producers will plant less corn and considerably more soybeans in 2009, private analytical firm Informa Economics said Friday morning. Informa pegged 2009 corn acreage at 82.29 million acres, down from the 85.89 million the USDA said was planted in 2008. Soybean acreage is expected to increase, to 81.46 million acres, up from 75.88 million in 2008.


Informa's report noted that planting decisions are being affected by the dramatic drop in commodity prices over the past three months.


On tap for Monday, the National Oilseed Processors Association is scheduled to release its November soybean crush report at 8:30 a.m. EST. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect the crush to decline to about 139.6 million bushels from the previous report. Estimates for the report ranged from as low as 137 million bushels to as high as 142.9 million bushels. In the previous report, crush for October was measured at 143.4 million bushels.





Soy product futures ended mixed, with soyoil stumbling amid the bearish influence of sliding crude oil futures and ample world vegoil supplies, analysts said. Soymeal futures managed to push higher after a two-sided session, finding support from strength in feed markets and the realignment of meal/oil spreads, analysts added.


Meanwhile, December soyoil and soymeal futures expired with little fanfare.


In pit trades, speculative fund selling was estimated at 2,000 lots.


January oil share ended at 37.83% and the January crush ended at 53 cents.


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