December 7, 2011
China's soy imports seen to surge in short run


China may raise soy buying in coming weeks to replenish dwindling inventories, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said Tuesday (Dec 6).


US soy prices firmed up last week following trade talk of new Chinese purchases.


"Additional purchases are imminent in the near to medium term," Oil World said. "With Chinese soy stocks currently down sharply from a year earlier owing to recent low imports and another decline in the domestic soy crop this season, imports have to be stepped up sizably during the remainder of the season."


China will import 58.5 million tonnes of soy in 2011-12 (October/September), Oil World estimates. This is similar to forecasts by Chinese purchasing executives on November 14.


But Oil World cautioned that any slowdown in China's economy would mean the estimate would have to be revised.


Oil World estimates China's November 2011 soy imports will rise to 5.5-5.6 million tonnes against 3.8 million tonnes in October. China's commerce ministry estimates November imports at 5.63 million tonnes.


China will import at least 5.3 million tonnes of soy in December 2011, Oil World estimates.


"With arrivals from South America still very high between October and December this year, the market share of US soy will remain comparatively small and sharply below a year ago," it added.

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