December 3, 2008
Brazil's beef output seen to grow 70 percent by 2018
Brazilian researchers estimated that Brazil's annual beef output may reach around 14 million tonnes in 2018.
Brazilian beef output was forecast to grow 4.98 percent growth rate each year, with domestic consumption seen to reach 7-9 million tonnes by 2018. The figures indicate a possible strong expansion of the export surplus.
For 2008, growth of 2.53 percent in domestic consumption is expected, and 12 percent in volume are available for exports, according to forecasts by the researchers.
If next year's export growth is maintained at around 5 percent, domestic consumption at 2.5 percent and the Brazilian GDP at 3.5 percent, total exports should increase 11.5 percent on-year to 2.9 million tonnes.
Researchers said Brazilian beef producers must seek new markets for the export surplus and intensify promotion work in countries that are already buyers.
Researchers expect markets such as China, Japan and other emerging nations should, in the medium term, demand more Brazilian meat, especially when beef prices are now relatively low when compared to other beef-producing countries.
Currently, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Libya are among the top buyers of Brazilian beef, consuming over 440,000 tonnes of beef in the first three quarters of the year. For the first 11 months of 2008, Brazilian beef exports totalled US$3.91 billion, with Arab countries accounting for nearly 20 percent of the total share.
In Brazil, beef consumption is linked to income, therefore the researchers concluded that the solution to increase consumption should be price reductions, which in fact, should take place due to the estimated growth of Brazilian products.