December 1, 2011

Philippines may experience pork supply shortage in 2012

The Philippines is likely to have a pork supply deficiency for the second half of 2011 and the first half of 2012, while broiler meat supply for the second half of this year may be short by 5,498 tonnes for the forecast demand of 382,676 tonnes, according to the quarterly report of the Livestock and Poultry Information and Early Warning System Project.
According to the LP-EWS, supply deficits for pork of 8,060 and 33,870 tonnes are likely to happen in the third and fourth quarter of this year.
As for poultry, a surplus of 6,911 tonnes is foreseen in the third quarter of this year, but a deficit of 10,801 tonnes may occur in the fourth quarter.

For the first half of 2012, the LPI-EWS forecast of broiler meat supply at 375,882 tonnes may not be enough to cover the point demand forecast of 404,617 tonnes.

The LPI-EWS projects that while there will be sufficient pork supply in the first quarter of 2012, a deficit of 47,590 tonnes is expected in second quarter of 2012.
According to the LPI-EWS, for the third quarter of this year, pork supply may be sufficient if it reaches the point forecast with demand at the lower forecast.
As for poultry, the LPI-EWS quarterly report said that for the second half of 2011, upper forecast of broiler meat supply may result in a surplus of 9,759 tonnes given that the demand reaches its upper forecast of 412,814 tonnes.
The forecast band for the fourth quarter of this year shows that upper supply forecast will be enough given the point demand forecast; but there may be a deficit of 4,202 tonnes if the upper forecast for demand takes place.
In the 1st half of 2012, upper forecast of broiler meat supply is sufficient given the point forecast of demand.

However, given the upper forecasts of broiler meat supply and demand, a deficit of 16,931 tonnes is foreseen.

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