November 27, 2008

CBOT March Wheat trapped in trading range


Chicago Board of Trade March soft red winter wheat futures are trading in the middle of a four-week-old sideways trading range on the daily bar chart.


That trading range is bound by solid technical support at last week's low of US$5.15 1/4 and the November high of US$6.08.


The direction in which Chicago Board of Trade March wheat "breaks out" of the aforementioned trading range is likely to be the next significant near-term price trend in the market.


Near-term technical resistance for March wheat is located at Wednesday's high of US$5.64 3/4 and then at this week's high of US$5.78. Near-term technical support is located at US$5.40 and then at US$5.26 1/4.


The weekly continuation chart for nearby CBOT soft red winter wheat futures shows that prices have recently paused amid a solid longer-term price downtrend from the 2008 all-time high. This recent pause on the weekly chart isn't bullish.


A solid breach of major psychological support at US$5.00 in nearby CBOT wheat futures would open the door to a quick run down to psychological support at US$4.00 a bushel.

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