November 25, 2011


IGC lowers 2011/12 corn crop forecast


The 2011/12 global corn crop forecast was lowered by the International Grains Council on Thursday (Nov 24) by two million tonnes to 853 million.


World corn production in 2010/11 was 826 million tonnes.


The IGC, in a monthly report, downwardly revised its forecast for the US corn crop by two million tonnes to 313 million while Mexico's corn crop outlook was cut by three million tonnes to 21 million tonnes.


"While the US crop was slightly smaller than last year's larger outturns elsewhere are expected to lift world corn production to a new record," the IGC said.


The IGC raised its forecast for Ukraine's corn crop by one million tonnes to 19 million, far above the prior season's 11.5 million, which was curtailed by drought. Other upward revisions included France where the 2011/12 forecast was raised to 15.8 million from 15.2 million.


Global corn consumption in 2011/12 was downwardly revised to 861 tonnes million from 863 million although it remained above the prior season's 844 million.


"Due to strong competition from feed-grade wheat and projected sluggish growth in industrial demand, world use (of corn) is forecast to increase at a slower than average pace," the IGC said.


"However, with the total still expected to exceed output, 2011/12 ending stocks are forecast to fall to a five-year low," the report added.


The IGC cut its forecast for global wheat production in 2011/12 by one million tonnes to 683 million, still well above the prior season's 653 million.


"The second largest world wheat crop ever and ample carry-in stocks from last year have sharply boosted global availabilities," the IGC said.


Global wheat consumption in 2011/12 was raised by two million tonnes to 679 million.


"While use is rising at a faster than normal pace, world stocks at the end of the season are still expected to climb to their highest level in a decade," the report said.

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