November 21, 2011

Thai Broiler Weekly: Chicken prices stable; surge likely after flood crisis (week ended Nov 18)
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Price summary

Thai chicken prices remain stable despite rising demand as life in Bangkok and suburbs slowly returns to normal as floodwater starts to recede.

The farm-gate price is holding firm at THB46/kg in Bangkok but dealers expect it to move a little higher in the next few weeks as thousands of retail outlets, closed for about a month because of direct flooding and/or delivery problems, resume normal operations.

Also adding to the demand pressure is the approach of the year-end and New Year holidays, when chicken demand here and abroad surges.

Market analysis

The government announced this week that threats of inundation in inner Bangkok is now over as water in the heavily flood outskirts had started to recede. In fact, Bangkok authorities assured residents the city would be completely dry in two weeks.

With most roads now passable, logistic problems have started to ease, allowing wet markets and meat retail outlets to start operation even in areas in the west and northwest of the capital, which were badly affected by Thailand's worst flooding in six decades.
While the floods had wiped out a few livestock farms and killed about a million birds, chicken supply has not been actually in peril. The Thai Broiler Processing Exporters Association had said earlier that about 90% of the country's broiler farms had not been directly affected by the flooding.
Although post-flooding demand is expected to increase especially with the coming Christmas and New Year holidays when local consumption and international orders normally rise, industry analysts do not expect broiler prices to skyrocket as they did early this year.

In May, the ex-farm price of Thai chicken soared to an all-time high of THB55-60/kg following massive flooding in northern and southern Thailand one to two months earlier.

Analysts said increased output by exporting countries has tempered any possibility of a price surge. They in fact predict that chicken prices in Europe, the world's leading importer, would drop to US$4,000-4,300/tonne next year from the current price level of US$4,300-4,500/tonne because of strong supply.

Even Thailand, whose current output is 10-20% down because of the widespread flooding in Bangkok and 30 other provinces in the central region, is expected to have higher production next year.


Prices for whole dressed chicken
as of  Nov 11(in Thai baht/kg)

Prices for whole dressed chicken
as of  Nov 18(in Thai baht/kg)

(in Thai baht/kg)

Supermarkets (Bangkok)




Public markets (Bangkok)




Public markets (Suburbs)




Farm gate 




US$1=THB 31.01 (November 21, 2011)


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