November 19, 2008

Brazil's soy crop forecast to decline


Brazil is likely to harvest 59 million tonnes of soy in early 2009, down 1 million tonnes from the previous forecast in October.
That is according to Hamburg-based oilseeds analyst Oil World on Tuesday (November 18, 2008). In 2008, Brazil harvested 60 million tonnes of soy. Oil World said that there is still the risk that soy production will turn out below their current estimate of 59 million tonnes due to smaller than expected plantings and/or lower yields.


Brazilian farmers were likely to reduce use of fertilizers and plant protection chemicals which could cut yields and raise the risk of damage to soy from the Asian rust disease, it said.


It also cut its forecast of Paraguay's crop by 600,000 tonnes from its previous estimate to 6 million tonnes in early 2009 from 6.81 million tonnes in 2008 due to smaller than expected plantings and poor weather.


It raised its Argentine crop forecast by 500,000 tonnes to 50 million tonnes from 47 million tonnes in 2008 but warned it was concerned about dry weather in the country.


Oil World said that at the moment they still expect Argentine soy plantings to rise by 1.3 million hectares to 18.2 million hectares, benefiting from the lower than expected plantings of other oilseeds and grains.

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