On the back of lower global demand, USDA has cut production forecasts for soy and oilseed production.

 

According to USDA's release of the supply and demand forecast for the 2008 soy harvest, US soy output is revised down to 79.5 million tonnes from 80 million tonnes in October. US crush forecast was also trimmed to 47.5 million tonnes from 47.9 million tonnes with stocks staying at 5.58 million tonnes. Soy oil stocks were set at 914,000 tonnes from 925,000 tonnes last month. USDA noted that meal and oil demand will weaken due to lower export demand this season.

 

US oilseed output projections fell to 88.2 million tonnes from 0.5 million tonnes with lower soy and cottonseed production. Some industry analysts are expecting a further reduction in national average soy yield in USDA's final production report that is announced in early January.

 

Global oilseed production is forecast to be 417.8 million tonnes, a drop of 1.3 million tonnes from last month. This is attributed to lower Brazilian soy production at 60 million tonnes, with Brazilian producers facing a smaller planting area and credit crunch. On the other hand, China is piling up on soy reserves causing sentiments that USDA's forecast of global soy exports of 77.87 million tonnes is on the low end.

 

Biodiesel to use more of soy oil in 2008-2009

 

Oilseed analysts said biodiesel output could make up 25 percent of total soy oil consumption in the four regions of United States, Argentina, Brazil and EU in 2008-2009. In total the four regions have raised soy oil use for biodiesel by 800,000 tonnes over the last year to 3.5-3.6 million tonnes, or 22 percent of their total soy oil consumption. In the coming 2008-09, biodiesel production could account for as much as 25 percent, or around 4.4 million tonnes in these countries.

 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that biofuels will comprise 12 percent of global liquid fuel supplies by 2030, rising to 26 percent by 2050, representing a 20-fold increase of the actual figure in 2007. Other forecasts also point out that United States will consume about 1.35 million tonnes of soyoil for biodiesel in 2007-08, about 16 percent of total U.S. soyoil consumption.

 

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 06 November 2008
　	　	New	Accum.		　	　	New	Accum.
Country	Commodity	Sales	Exports		Country	Commodity	Sales	Exports
Canada	Soybeans	2.00	71.30		Peru	Soymeal	16.50	16.50
China	Soybeans	207.70	3230.30		Philippines	Soymeal	2.20	10.60
Colombia	Soybeans	1.20	23.50		Poland	Soymeal	20.00	20.00
Costa Rica	Soybeans	6.10	32.80		Surinam	Soymeal	0.50	0.50
Indonesia	Soybeans	10.20	275.90		Taiwan	Soymeal	0.40	1.20
Japan	Soybeans	18.80	415.80		Thailand	Soymeal	40.00	0.00
Mexico	Soybeans	82.00	634.60		Turkey	Soymeal	4.90	4.90
Netherlands	Soybeans	65.50	130.80		Venezuela	Soymeal	20.10	76.30
Spain	Soybeans	156.50	102.50		Canada	Soyoil	0.60	4.20
Syria	Soybeans	39.10	110.50		Mexico	Soyoil	6.20	13.70
Taiwan	Soybeans	27.60	282.70
Turkey	Soybeans	27.50	94.80		Export Sales Totals (tmt)
Canada	Soymeal	6.10	105.80		　	Outstanding	Accum.	New
Colombia	Soymeal	2.90	9.70		Commodity	Sales	Exports	Sales
Israel	Soymeal	8.00	23.50		Soybeans	9,439.20	6,181.80	478.40
Jamaica	Soymeal	2.60	10.30		Soymeal	1,911.60	662.70	124.40
Panama	Soymeal	7.50	25.50		Soyoil	133.20	45.70	6.30