November 19, 2008

 

ASA weekly: USDA decreases production forecast for US soy and oilseed
 
 

On the back of lower global demand, USDA has cut production forecasts for soy and oilseed production.

 

According to USDA's release of the supply and demand forecast for the 2008 soy harvest, US soy output is revised down to 79.5 million tonnes from 80 million tonnes in October. US crush forecast was also trimmed to 47.5 million tonnes from 47.9 million tonnes with stocks staying at 5.58 million tonnes. Soy oil stocks were set at 914,000 tonnes from 925,000 tonnes last month. USDA noted that meal and oil demand will weaken due to lower export demand this season.

 

US oilseed output projections fell to 88.2 million tonnes from 0.5 million tonnes with lower soy and cottonseed production. Some industry analysts are expecting a further reduction in national average soy yield in USDA's final production report that is announced in early January.

 

Global oilseed production is forecast to be 417.8 million tonnes, a drop of 1.3 million tonnes from last month. This is attributed to lower Brazilian soy production at 60 million tonnes, with Brazilian producers facing a smaller planting area and credit crunch. On the other hand, China is piling up on soy reserves causing sentiments that USDA's forecast of global soy exports of 77.87 million tonnes is on the low end.

 

Biodiesel to use more of soy oil in 2008-2009

 

Oilseed analysts said biodiesel output could make up 25 percent of total soy oil consumption in the four regions of United States, Argentina, Brazil and EU in 2008-2009. In total the four regions have raised soy oil use for biodiesel by 800,000 tonnes over the last year to 3.5-3.6 million tonnes, or 22 percent of their total soy oil consumption. In the coming 2008-09, biodiesel production could account for as much as 25 percent, or around 4.4 million tonnes in these countries.

 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that biofuels will comprise 12 percent of global liquid fuel supplies by 2030, rising to 26 percent by 2050, representing a 20-fold increase of the actual figure in 2007. Other forecasts also point out that United States will consume about 1.35 million tonnes of soyoil for biodiesel in 2007-08, about 16 percent of total U.S. soyoil consumption.

 

However, in terms of land use, IEA has issued a conservative prediction that 160 million hectares of land will be used for energy crops by 2050, taking up just 3 percent of the global agricultural area.
 
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance
 

United States 

Argentina

Brazil

 

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

 

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

Soybeans

thousand tonnes

 Carryin

12,229

15,617

3,811

334.00

1,876

680.00

2,252

3,110

3,235

 Production

86,770

70,358

79,848

48,800

46,500

50,500

59,000

61,000

62,500

 Imports

246.00

272.00

272.00

2,336

3,325

3,450

108.00

150

160.00

 Crush

49,198

49,396

48,580

35,962

36,400

37,890

31,511

32,400

32,500

 Exports

30,428

31,434

27,216

12,132

13,100

14,100

23,805

25,650

27,500

 Other

4,002

1,606

4,469

1,500

1,521

1,550

2,934

2,975

3,025

 Usage

83,628

82,436

80,265

49,594

51,021

53,540

58,250

61,025

63,025

   Carryout

15,617

3,811

3,666

1,876

680

1,090

3,110

3,235

2,870

Soymeal

thousand tonnes

 Carryin

285.00

314.00

272.00

2,003

1,144

1,610

863.00

1,563

2,263

 Production

39,058

39,022

38,469

27,856

28,621

29,745

24,420

25,130

25,190

 Domestic use

31,184

30,618

30,844

617.00

640.00

696.00

11,520

12,155

12,550

 Net Exports

7,845

8,446

7,652

28,098

27,515

29,000

12,200

12,275

12,970

 Usage

39,029

39,064

38,496

28,715

28,155

29,696

23,720

24,430

25,520

   Carryout

314.00

272.00

245.00

1,144

1,610

1,659

1,563

2,263

1,933

Soybean oil

thousand tonnes

 Carryin

1,365

1,399

1,195

487.00

310.00

331.00

300.00

341.00

336.00

 Production

9,294

9,498

9,231

6,917

6,958

7,245

6,050

6,220

6,240

 Domestic use

8,420

8,368

8,324

580.00

995.00

1,170

3,550

3,895

4,048

 Net exports

840.00

1,334

1,043

6,514

5,942

6,035

2,459

2,330

2,190

 Usage

9,260

9,702

9,367

7,094

6,937

7,205

6,009

6,225

6,238

   Carryout

1,399

1,195

1,059

310.00

331.00

371.00

341.00

336.00

338.00

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 06 November 2008
 
 
New
Accum.
 
 
 
New
Accum.
Country
Commodity
Sales
Exports
 
Country
Commodity
Sales
Exports
Canada
Soybeans
2.00
71.30
 
Peru
Soymeal
16.50
16.50
China
Soybeans
207.70
3230.30
 
Philippines
Soymeal
2.20
10.60
Colombia
Soybeans
1.20
23.50
 
Poland
Soymeal
20.00
20.00
Costa Rica
Soybeans
6.10
32.80
 
Surinam
Soymeal
0.50
0.50
Indonesia
Soybeans
10.20
275.90
 
Taiwan
Soymeal
0.40
1.20
Japan
Soybeans
18.80
415.80
 
Thailand
Soymeal
40.00
0.00
Mexico
Soybeans
82.00
634.60
 
Turkey
Soymeal
4.90
4.90
Netherlands
Soybeans
65.50
130.80
 
Venezuela
Soymeal
20.10
76.30
Spain
Soybeans
156.50
102.50
 
Canada
Soyoil
0.60
4.20
Syria
Soybeans
39.10
110.50
 
Mexico
Soyoil
6.20
13.70
Taiwan
Soybeans
27.60
282.70
 
 
 
 
 
Turkey
Soybeans
27.50
94.80
 
Export Sales Totals (tmt)
Canada
Soymeal
6.10
105.80
 
 
Outstanding
Accum.
New
Colombia
Soymeal
2.90
9.70
 
Commodity
Sales
Exports
Sales
Israel
Soymeal
8.00
23.50
 
Soybeans
9,439.20
6,181.80
478.40
Jamaica
Soymeal
2.60
10.30
 
Soymeal
1,911.60
662.70
124.40
Panama
Soymeal
7.50
25.50
 
Soyoil
133.20
45.70
6.30