November 17, 2020
Opportunities for US soy in Sub-Saharan Africa livestock feed
Growth is on the horizon within the livestock and feed industries in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Dr. Andrew Muhammad, professor and Blasingame Chair of Excellence in Agricultural Policy at the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, said development within the region is driving this growth. He presented a Sub-Saharan Africa livestock and feed outlook at the 2020 African Trade Exchange which was co-hosted by the US Soybean Export Council (USSEC). The organisation partnered with the US Grains Council and World Initiative for Soy in Human Health to host the event.
Africa's population, growth and urbanisation contribute to its up and coming market development. As expansion in the region continues, consumer preferences and purchasing habits begin to shift.
"Lower income countries tend to spend a lot more of their income on food," Dr. Andrew Muhammad said. "But, there's also this notion that as incomes rise in the developing world, diets transition from staples to animal protein."
The lower the per capita income in a country, the higher the share of an additional dollar will be spent on food.
Muhammad obtained income forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa and considered the estimated global relationship between income and animal product spending. From there, he derived changes in per capita intake of animal protein.
Over the next five years, shifting incomes and consumer preferences are expected to increase demand for livestock products, including dairy, beef, poultry, pork, mutton and eggs. This shift drives an upward trend in meat production in the region.
Animal product demand is projected to increase, with dairy experiencing the most growth.
Annual livestock production has grown steadily in Sub-Saharan Africa. It has experienced just under 3% growth annually since 1992. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects a significant rise in production until 2029.
Annual livestock production growth has continued in Sub-Saharan Africa since 1992.
With this projected increase in production comes a potential increase in livestock feed demand, an area of interest for US soy.
Sub-Saharan Africa is currently the sixth largest destination of US feed and grain exports, with Nigeria being the largest destination within the region.
Over the next ten years, the region's corn feed use is projected to increase by 19%.
"This is, in terms of volume, the largest of the feed grains," Muhammad said.
Looking at other grains, the region ranks 51st as a destination for US soy and soybean products. Although this number is lower than that of other feed and grain exports, it presents an opportunity for significant growth. Within the same ten-year span, soybean and soybean meal feed use are projected to increase by 59% and 35%, respectively, according to USDA.
This is the highest projected increase among feed use grains in the region and represents an opportunity for boosted demand of US soy.
Soybean and soybean meal feed use are projected to increase by 59% and 35%, respectively, until 2029.
This livestock outlook was one of many topics covered throughout the virtual African Trade Exchange on November 9-10.