November 16, 2011


China's Q4 soy imports forecast to rise


China is likely to raise soy imports in the final quarter of 2011 despite recent indications of an import slowdown, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said Tuesday (Nov 15).


"Soy imports are likely to pick up in the October-December 2011 quarter and rise above last year's level," Oil World said.


China's October soy imports slumped to a seven-month low, partly because the Chinese government was releasing state soy stocks onto the domestic market to cool domestic prices.


But Oil World expects China's soy imports to rise in November and December, and predicts South America will win most of the business.


"Although declining seasonally, we still expect that Argentina and Brazil will export a combined 1.05 million tonnes of soy to China in November against 0.1 million tonnes last season," Oil World said.


"If our estimate for November is confirmed, it would result in combined Argentine and Brazilian soy exports to China of a record 6.45 million tonnes in September-November 2011 - more than double the 3.06 million tonnes in the same three months of last year."


"However, arrivals of US soy at Chinese ports are set to decline sharply from last year in October-December 2011," it added.


US soy exports to China fell by two million tonnes on-year in September and October, it said.

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