November 15, 2008


CBOT Soy Review on Friday: Up on short covering, outsides recover



Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended higher Friday, bouncing back from earlier losses on late short covering, as outside markets trimmed their losses.


CBOT January soybeans finished 2 cents higher at US$8.96.


December soymeal settled US$1.50 higher at US$265.50 per short tonne. December soyoil finished 21 points lower at 32.60 cents per pound.


The influence of outside markets remained a dominant feature, with the trade taking a cautious approach amid lingering economic worries, analysts said.


The theme was consistent, with a late retracement of losses in stocks, and crude oil easing off its lows opening the door for some end-of-the-week short covering, analysts added.


Otherwise, the trade was impacted by demand uncertainties, with subpar weekly export sales data and lingering slowness in crushing activity applying mild pressure to prices during the session.


The uncertainty in the market continues to keep prices confined within a 5-week sideways trading range, with bullish traders encouraged that a harvest low may be in place, or close at hand amid the inability of the market break in the face of outside pressure.


Nevertheless, traders say upside potential remains hindered by fears of slowing demand, a CBOT floor analyst said.


U.S. Department of Agriculture reported total weekly soybean export sales were a net 478,300 metric tonnes for the week ended Nov. 6, down 53 percent from the prior 4-week average. Analysts had forecast sales between 500,000 and 800,000 metric tonnes.


The National Oilseed Processors Association says 143.397 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in October, up from 120.376 million in September and above the average analyst estimate of 140.9 million. However, the crush was 10 million below the average for the month in recent years.





Soy product futures ended mixed, with soymeal rising on meal/oil spreading, spillover from soybeans and decent weekly sales data. Soyoil futures stumbled, unable to rebound with the rest of the complex amid spillover pressure from crude oil futures.


USDA reported soymeal weekly export sales at a net 124,400 tonnes. The figure was at the high end of trade estimates ranging from 75,000 to 125,000 tonnes.


December oil share ended at 38.04% and the November/December crush ended at 64 3/4 cents.


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