November 14, 2011


US corn plantings to improve by 2.2%



The outlook for 2012 US corn plantings was raised and the forecast for soy plantings was cut according to forecasts by private analytical firm Informa Economics Friday (Nov 11).


Informa, a closely watched crop forecaster, pegged corn plantings at 94 million acres, up from its October estimate of 93.1 million acres, traders said. The firm projected soy plantings at 76.1 million acres, down from its October forecast of 77 million, and left its wheat plantings outlook unchanged from October's 57 million estimate.


Informa, in a report, attributed the increase in corn area compared with last month due to corn's improved net revenue prospects as compared to those for soy over the past month. Recent soy prices are nearly equal to the level offered about 30 days ago while corn prices increased slightly, giving corn a larger advantage in projected returns as the two crops compete for 2012 acreage, the report said.


Corn for December delivery, the most actively traded contract, recently was down US$0.05 1/2, or 0.9%, at US$6.40 a bushel at the CBOT. Soy for January delivery were up US$0.07, or 0.8%, at US$11.75 1/2 a bushel.


If Informa's planting projections are realized, farmers in 2012 will harvest a record 14.1 billion bushels of corn, assuming they abandon a normal number of acres and produce trend-type yields, according to the firm. Farmers will harvest 3.35 billion bushels of soy and 2.3 billion bushels of wheat, assuming normal abandonment and trend-type yields, Informa said.


The firm forecast 2012 all wheat yield at 45.4 bushels per acre, which, if realized, would be 1.7 bushels per acre above 2011. Informa also estimated 2012 winter wheat seedings at 39.8 million acres, up 55,000 from its October forecast.


The USDA this week estimated farmers in 2011 will harvest 12.310 billion bushels of corn, 3.046 billion bushels of soy and 1.999 billion bushels of wheat. The department estimated farmers had planted 91.9 million acres of corn, 75 million acres of soy and 54.4 million acres of wheat for harvest in 2011.

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