November 10, 2011

China may face pork shortages this year due to hog diseases and rising feed costs, Rabobank agricultural analyst Chenjun Pan said Wednesday (Nov 9).

Pork imports will likely rise this year to close the deficit, but import volumes may ease next year as domestic supply recovers, Chenjun said.

China's pork supply is expected to increase to 60 million tonnes in 2020 from 49 million tonnes now, with an annual compound rise of around 2%, he added.

Pork prices, a major driver of food inflation in China, may rebound again as early as December because of supply deficit, Pan predicted. Pork shortages are likely to continue until the first quarter of 2012 as farmers have refrained from rebuilding herds due to concerns about diseases and rising raw material cost.

However, pork's share of overall meat consumption is expected to fall to 63% in 2015 from 65% last year. It accounted for 80% of China's meat consumption in 1985, Chen said.