November 10, 2011

Ukraine ships out higher grain volume for 2011/12

In September, Ukraine has shipped out 1.635 million tonnes of grain, which mostly included wheat and barley, against August with 1.237 million tonnes.

For the first time this season, exports exceeded last year's figure (1.330 million tonnes).

In particular, 834.6 kilo tonnes of wheat were exported in September against 570.5 kilo tonnes in August and 610.2 kilo tonnes in September 2010. In total, Ukraine has shipped abroad 1,545 kilo tonnes of wheat this season compared to 1,263 kilo tonnes in July-September 2010.

Barley exports totalled 668.3 kilo tonnes in September against 627.1 kilo tonnes in August and 552.6 kilo tonnes in September 2010. Overall, Ukraine has exported 1,452 kilo tonnes of barley this season compared to 1,802 kilo tonnes in July-September 2010.

The remaining duty on barley along with its short supply will contribute to a decline in barley shipments in the remainder of the season. UkrAgroConsult estimates that the season's total barley exports will not exceed 3.2 million tonnes.

The fall in barley shipments will be offset by increasing corn exports. In October, the main buyers are North Africa and Near East. Japan may also purchase Black Sea corn: it is rumoured to have already struck a deal for supply of the first parcel of Ukrainian grain. Japan bought no Ukrainian corn last season, but imported about 250 kilo tonnes of it in 2009/10. If the quality of Ukrainian corn meets Japanese needs, the size of shipments may increase considerably because Ukrainian corn is offered with a substantial discount compared to, for example, American corn.

As in the case of wheat, we do not rule out that competition for corn markets will intensify between the Black Sea countries. Russian analysts believe Russian corn exports may total about 1.8 million tonnes this season (the October USDA estimate equals 0.6 million tonnes).

Traditionally, the highest exports of Ukrainian corn are seen in November and December. However, we expect this season's exports to remain high up until March. Then competition with South American grain may intensify, because Argentina may boost corn production and exports by 35% in 2012.