November 7, 2008


CBOT Soy Review on Thursday: Soy gains despite crude, equity losses



Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures managed to post some gains for the day, rejecting the losing trends defining neighboring market, crude oil and equities.


A CBOT floor trader attributed the late bump to "technical buying," noting light trading activity. But others suggest commercial buying offered support.


November soybeans added 4 3/4 cents, closing at US$8.99 1/2 per bushel. The contract bounced back from the day's low of US$8.75 and briefly bounced above US$9. January soybeans gained 2 cents, hitting US$9.06. The contract value ranged from US$8.83 to US$9.11. Speculative funds activity was seen as even Soybeans traded at a loss for most of the day, influenced by the weakness in equities and crude oil that defined corn and wheat trades through the close.


Soybean export old and new crop sales totaled 896.1 thousand metric tonnes for the week ended Oct. 30, according to figures released Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.


Analysts expected to see sales range from 600,000-1 million metric tonnes.


"Prices are down where end users see them as a good deal," said Arlan Suderman, Farm Futures market analyst. "We're definitely in a buy-the-break mentality; end users fear higher prices more than lower prices."


Traders are also waiting for unemployment numbers to be released by the U.S. Department of Labor at 8:30 a.m. EST Friday.


"If [unemployment] comes in under 200,000, we are going to bounce," a CBOT floor trader said. If the number falls below 280,000 or 300,000, commodity prices will be hit, he added.





The CBOT soy complex closed mixed.


December soyoil rose 15 points to 34.17 cents per pound, but December soymeal dropped US$2.20 at US$262.80 per short tonne. Speculative funds sold an estimated 1,000 soymeal contracts, while soyoil activity was seen as even.


Soymeal export sales totaled 114,100 metric tonnes for the week ended Oct. 30, according to data released by the USDA Thursday. The U.S. has shipped 517,300 tonnes in the marketing year that started in August, trailing year earlier figures of 677,600 tonnes.


Soyoil exports were also down week-over-week and year-over-year.


Shipments for the week ending Oct. 30 totaled 9,200 metric tonnes, the USDA said. Shipments total 43,900 tonnes for the year, behind year-earlier shipments of 46,500, according to the weekly export sales report.


December oil shares ended at 39.4% and the November/December crush ended at 54 1/2 cents.


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