November 5, 2011


EU lifts 2011-12 corn output estimate


EU corn harvest this year should reach 63.7 million tonnes, up from previous month's forecast of 60.8 million tonnes and well above 57.2 million tonnes in 2010, data released by the European Commission showed Friday (Nov 5).


Analysts had been expecting a bumper corn crop in the EU on the back of favourable weather and French-based analyst last month raised its forecast by 1.7 million tonnes to 63.4 million tonnes.


The EU data also showed an upward revision to wheat production at 128.0 million tonnes against 126.4 million tonnes estimated last month and above last year's production of 126.5 million.


Projected wheat and corn exports this season were left unchanged from last month at 15.0 million and 1.8 million tonnes respectively.


Ending stocks increased compared with last month's forecasts. Corn stocks at the end of 2011-12 were now pegged at 11.5 million tonnes, up from 11.1 million, while wheat stocks were put at 10.8 million tonnes against 10.0 million.


The projected wheat stocks would be higher than last season when the EU had 10.1 million in wheat stocks but corn stocks would still be below an estimated 11.8 million in 2010-11, the data showed.


Friday's estimates are the second series to be issued by the European Commission after it published in October a first-ever short-term outlook for agricultural markets, as part of a push by G20 countries to raise transparency.


In barley, output increased to 51.6 million tonnes from 50.9 million last time. Ending stocks jumped to 10.1 million tonnes from 6.5 million tonnes, reflecting a nearly three million tonnes drop in animal-feed use and increased supply.


However, overall use of cereals in animal feed was little changed from last month, with corn taking the bulk from barley, up 2.5 million tonnes from the last forecast.


In oilseeds, the data put rapeseed output at 19.3 million tonnes, with imports this season were seen at 2.6 million tonnes and ending stocks at 1.0 million.

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