November 2, 2011

South American soy exports to reduce region's stocks

A jump in South America's soy exports is expected to reduce the area's supplies and may shift more demand to the US in November, according to Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World on Tuesday (Nov 1).

"Rapid depletion of South American soy stocks is indicated by the latest information on the volume of shipments," Oil World said.

"We estimate that in September and October 2011, soy exports from Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay have increased substantially by 3.2 million tonnes or 64% from a year ago."

Oil World estimates the three countries exported 8.23 million tonnes of soy in September and October 2011.

"We forecast that world demand for US soy will recover in November and continue to rise in December and January, when most of the South American soy stocks will have been disposed of and South American exports are seasonally small," it said.

US soy exporters lost market share to South American suppliers in September and October 2011, it said.

China has been by far the largest export destination for South American soy, it added.

"The increase in Chinese import demand and the reduction of US exports have mainly contributed to the pronounced increase in South American soy exports," it said.