October 26, 2016
 

         

                                                                 

Price summary                                                                 

  

Procurement price of live hog over 80kg (Expressed in VND 1,000/kg)
	W1	W2	W3	W4
Dong Nai	47000	46000	44000	43000
Binh Duong	43000	42000	42500	42000
Can Tho	42000	41500	41000	40500
HCM	45000	44500	44500	43500
Hanoi	45000	44500	44500	44500
(VND1,000 = US$0.045 as of September)

   

Market analysis

 

In September, live hog prices fell from August due to abundant supply, with domestic pork consumption being variable and exports to the Chinese market being quite limited.

For Dong Nai and Vinh Long provinces, purchase prices per kilogram respectively fell about VND3,000 (US$0.13) to VND4,000 (US$0.18) and VND1,000 (US$0.045) to reach VND43,000 (US$1.93) and VND42,000 (US$1.88). Many household hog farmers said that, at the current prices, they can only manage to get by as feed prices and many livestock service costs continue increasing.

In the past few months, hog producers have not had large-scale disease issues. As estimated, the herd size in the country in September was up about 3.5 to 4%, and slaughtered pork meat production was up about 4.45%, compared to the same period in 2015.

 

Farmers are worried that the pork price situation would plummet. Their anxiety is increasing with the Lunar New Year season closing in and as a series of costs from feed to breeding continues to climb.

Mr. Nguyen Kim, vice chairman of Dong Nai Livestock Association, said that due to their experiences in the past few years, farmers in Dong Nai province are no longer massively increasing hog production before the Tet holiday. However, the supply market for Tet remains very abundant. According to him, although many experts had speculated that pork prices would fall to a low level from 2017 after a hot growth cycle, pork prices are in fact dropping into the cool down cycle earlier than speculated. Separately, pork items which are mainly dependent on Chinese demand remains an unstable market for farmers.