October 25, 2008
CBOT Soy Review on Friday: Falls on equities pressure; volatile Trade


Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures were carried away by the bearish din of tumbling equities and crude oil Friday, ending lower in a volatile trading session.


November soybeans ended 20 3/4 cents lower at US$8.63 3/4, after trading as low as US$8.45 and as high as US$9.01. Jan soybeans finished down 21 1/2 cents at US$8.67 a bushel.


December soymeal settled 70 cents lower at US$268.30 per short tonne, and December soyoil finished 135 points higher at 31.47 cents per pound.


Most commodities were lower Friday, as liquidation continued and U.S. stocks fell sharply. Traders are anticipating depressed demand due to a worldwide recession.


Soybeans had rallied after losses on the open, and were trading higher for part of the day thanks to some fundamental support and trimmed losses in equities.


"We're trying to separate some core fundamentals from outside markets, but it's tough to hold gains when outside markets are getting hammered," a CBOT floor trader said. "We're trying to gain some traction from the lows of last week."


But, he added, in the current environment of market volatility, selling is inevitable as "people are scared to hold their positions overnight."


The market does have some supportive developments, traders said, including strong export sales reported this week.


The trade is "starting to recognize export demand as evidenced by the export sales numbers reported yesterday and today's sale to China," said John Kleist, broker/analyst with Allendale. "The market's having a little more confidence in demand."


Wet, cold weather is also supporting the market, delaying harvest and in some cases shattering pods, traders said. A trader said that soybean yields are coming in below expectations, according to field reports.


DTN Meteorlogix said a windy and cold weather pattern will develop in the central U.S. during the first half of next week, with temperatures 10 to 12 degrees below normal. Drier and warmer conditions more favorable to harvest are expected in the second half of next week.


Farmers' refusal to sell at the current low prices is strengthening basis, another supportive factor in the market, traders said.


Farm Futures said the market showed great "resilience" Friday, with the close well off session lows, "suggesting a bottoming action despite ongoing weakness in the financial markets."


Funds bought an estimated 1,000 lots of soymeal and sold an estimated 2,000 lots in soyoil.

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