October 23, 2024
US' trade war with China, tariffs would impact US farmers, study found
The National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association in the United States found a tariff-induced trade war with China would "hurt" US farmers, based on a jointly released study that pulled from 2018 tariffs data and GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump's economic plans.
Worst-case scenario figures in the study show that soybean exports to China would have an average decline of nearly 52% below baseline expected levels, and corn exports would have an average decline of 84% below baseline.
Agricultural representatives, including people from Farmers Unions in Minnesota and Wisconsin, the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association, and Iowa former Secretary of Agriculture and former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge among others met on October 16 for a webinar in response to the study.
Many in the webinar urged farmers and rural voters not to vote for former US President Trump due to his proposed tariffs.
"We know that elections have consequences, and unfortunately, this one could leave us in a very precarious position (for) those of us here in the heartland that try to make a living on the great soil," Judge, a Democrat, said.
The study, released on October 15, was conducted by the World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services and projected a new trade war would cause "immediate" drops in corn and soybean exports, which would quickly be filled by exports from Argentina and Brazil.
According to the trade study, many of the tariffs from the 2018 US-China trade war are still in place, but China has granted annual waivers to the US to reduce the tariff costs. This has worked to quell the trade war in recent years, but the study says the existing tariffs from China could "easily be reinstated."
The study pulls from two scenarios, one where China fully reinstates the 2018 tariffs, and another where China applies a 60% tariff on US goods, based on Trump's proposal to place a 60% tariff on Chinese goods.
This, according to the study, could lead to an average loss for US soybean farmers of US$3.6 billion to US$5.9 billion and US$0.9 billion to US$1.4 billion for corn farmers in annual production value.
The agricultural representatives on the webinar spoke frequently of the 2018 trade war and the "devastating effects" it had on farmers and rural economies.
The effect was acknowledged by the former administration, which issued US$23 million in relief to farmers who suffered a loss of trade due to the high tariffs.
Denny Wolff, the former Pennsylvania Secretary of Agriculture, said on the call that farmers were hit with a "double whammy" in 2018 when their imports went up because of the tariffs and the value of exports went down.
Gary Wertish, Minnesota Farmers Union president, said in the call that the agriculture economy is "still rebuilding" from the "devastating effects" of the 2018 trade war.
Judge said the tariffs could be "catastrophic" to Iowa as it has a large agricultural production compared to its relatively small land mass and population.
"We saw what happened in 2018 and we simply cannot do it again," Judge said.
Brent Swart, the president of Iowa Soybean association, noted the importance of trade to Iowa soybean farmers in an emailed statement to Iowa Capital Dispatch.
"Many farmers could share a similar story of depressed commodity prices and sustained financial squeeze following the start of the US-China trade dispute," Swart said. "Trade remains a top priority for US soybean farmers, and this study only underscores its importance."
- Iowa Capital Dispatch