October 22, 2015

Global pork production to grow 1% in 2015 -- USDA forecast

Global pork production is estimated to total 111.5 million tonnes in 2015, up 1% from last year, according to the latest global outlook report released by the US Department of Agriculture.

In 2016, output is forecast to increase slightly to 112 million tonnes.

A slight decline from the EU will be offset by estimated increases from other countries, with production from Russia up by 6%. China continues to dominate pig production across the globe although production is forecast to decrease slightly in 2015 before regaining volumes in 2016.

US production growth is expected to continue, but will slow significantly from 8% in 2015 to just 1% next year.

The Brazilian pork industry is estimated to grow further, increasing 2% both in 2015 and 2016, as the country increases shipments to the Russian market.

Pork exports

After two consecutive years of declines, global pork exports are forecast to increase by 4% this year to 7.1 million tonnes. It is forecast to increase further in 2016, albeit by a smaller margin of 2%. Next year's growth is expected to be led by the US and Brazil, with exports ahead by 5% and 3% respectively.

Exports to Japan, the world's leading buyer of imported pork, are estimated to decrease by 5% in 2015 and 2% in 2016 as the country's domestic production rebuilds after outbreaks of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus, or PEDv, last year.

Exports to Russia are also set to be much lower this and next year. These falls are being offset by increased shipments to Mexico, China and South Korea, among others, although growth will be much lower next year.