October 20, 2011

Australia's wheat forecast revised up

Australian wheat crop estimate was increased by 1.7 million tonnes to 25.2 million tonnes because of good growing conditions, according to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia's (CBA) commodity analysis.

CBA lifted its Western Australia wheat harvest forecast from 8.01 million tonnes, stated in its August crop report, to the October estimate of 8.97 million and this would make the 2011-12 wheat crop the state's third largest on record.

The bank said winter and spring rainfall had been favourable for most of the Western Australia grain belt, with only the Esperance port zone receiving below average rains.

"Conditions in the northern wheat belt have been close to ideal this season and the Geraldton port zone appears set to achieve a record harvest," it said.

Last week, state bulk handler and marketer CBH Group said it expected a 12.6 million tonne harvest of all grains, with the Geraldton port zone likely to set a receival record of three million tonnes.

CBA increased its forecast for the NSW wheat crop from 7.06 million tonnes, made in August, to this month's estimate of 7.53 million tonnes. The Victorian wheat crop forecast was increased by 90,000 tonnes to 3.28 million tonnes, while a 70,000 tonne increase to the Queensland crop lifted its estimate to 1.33 million tonnes.

The South Australian harvest estimate was altered by 95,000 tonnes to 4.09 million tonnes, making it the fourth largest on record if realised.

CBA's national wheat harvest forecast is still one million tonnes less than the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences September crop report estimate of 26.2 million tonnes.