October 17, 2011


US corn, soy production forecast revised down



US corn production was forecast at 12,432,910,000 bushels, down 1% from last month and soy production was forecast at 3,059,987,000 bushels, also 1% from last month, according to the USDA in its crop production report.


Both USDA production numbers were below the average of pre-report trade estimates of 12.49 billion bushels for corn 3.09 billion bushels for soy.
Corn yield was forecast at 148.1 bushels an acre, unchanged from September but down 4.7 bushels from 152.8 bushels an acre as the final 2010 average yield. Harvested area was forecast at 83.9 million acres, down 1% from 84.4 million acres in September but up 3% from 81.4 million acres in 2010.


"If realised, this will be the fourth largest production total on record for the US," the USDA said. The yield average would be the lowest since 2005.


Soy yield was forecast at 41.5 bushels an acre, down 0.3 bushels from 41.8 bushels an acre in September and down two bushels from 43.5 bushels an acre in 2010. Harvested area was forecast at 73.7 million acres, down 147,000 acres from September and down 4% from 76.6 million acres in 2010.


The USDA yield numbers were below the average trade forecast of 148.9 bushels an acre for corn 42 bushels an acre for soy.


"If realised, the average yield will be the second lowest since 2003," the USDA said.


US rice production for this year was forecast at 186,903,000 cwts, down 2% from 190,854,000 cwts in September and down 23% from 243,104,000 cwts in 2010.


Sorghum production in 2011 was forecast at 243,800,000 bushels, down 294,000 bushels from 244,094,000 bushels in September and down 29% from 345,395,000 bushels in 2010 and the lowest since 1956, the USDA said.

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