October 15, 2008

US corn, soy harvest lags expectations

US corn and soy crop maturity and harvests dragged at a pace that surprised most analysts as of Oct. 12, while winter wheat planting remained on par with its normal seeding pace, the US Department of Agriculture said Tuesday (October 14) in its weekly crop progress report.

The report, usually released Monday afternoons, was delayed by the federal Columbus Day holiday.

 
As of Sunday, the USDA said 21 percent of the US corn crop was harvested, up from 14 percent last week and below the five-year average of 41 percent. Last year, 50 percent of the crop had been harvested.

Analysts had predicted harvest progress at 22 percent to 30 percent.

"I thought traders were a little aggressive on the harvest numbers they'd expected to see," said Dale Durchholz, senior market analyst at AgriVisor. "There's been more interest in harvesting bean than corn."

A lot of the harvest delay is related to farmers allowing their grain to dry down in the field rather than paying to mechanically dry it, he said.

"With the lateness of planting and the summer on the mild side, maturity got pushed back and delayed. We're 10 days away from [crop maturity] - maybe even more in some places."

Iowa's corn harvest was 7 percent complete, compared to 3 percent last week and the five-year average of 27 percent. In Illinois, 20 percent of the crop was harvested, up from 10 percent last week but below the five-year average of 63 percent.

Indiana's corn harvest was 26 percent complete, according to USDA, compared to 15 percent last week and the five-year average of 38 percent. In Minnesota, 5 percent of the crop was harvested, up from 3 percent a week ago but below the five-year average of 24 percent.

Reports of late maturity present Durchholz with no concerns at this point in the season. The forecast looks mild enough to usher the northern states to completion and scattered showers across the Corn Belt only threaten short-term harvest delays that may allow farmers to complete more mid-harvest maintenance to reduce field fires and accidents, he said.

Eighty-six percent of the corn crop was mature, up from 73 percent last week but still trailing the five-year average of 95 percent, according to USDA. Last year, 97 percent of the crop was mature. The USDA said 62 percent of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, up one percentage point from last week.

 
The USDA said 51 percent of the US soy crop was harvested, up from 31 percent last week. Last year, 61 percent of the crop had been harvested, in line with the five-year average.

Analysts had predicted 45 percent to 60 percent of the crop would be harvested.

In Iowa, 68 percent of the crop was harvested, compared to 37 percent last week and the five-year average of 79 percent. Illinois' harvest was 45 percent complete, up from 22 percent last week but below the five-year average of 70 percent.

In Indiana, 55 percent of the soy crop was harvested, up from 38 percent last week and the five-year average of 56 percent. In Minnesota, 67 percent of the crop was harvested, up from 46 percent last week, but below the five-year average of 74 percent.

The slower-than-expected soy harvest is "probably not" significant as the upper Midwestern states will likely finish harvest before frost threatens, Durchholz said.

Frost pressure is "fast becoming a non-issue - it really is a non-starter at this juncture," he said.

The USDA said 91 percent of the soy crop was dropping leaves, compared to 83 percent a week ago and the five-year average of 96 percent.

The USDA said 57 percent of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from last week.

This far through harvest, "this is probably the last rating we'll have," Durchholz said.

  

US winter wheat planting was 73 percent complete as of Sunday, exceeding the 69 percent reported last year and on par with the five-year average, according to USDA. A week ago, 59 percent of the crop had been sown.

The plantings were in line with analyst estimates.

In Kansas, 79 percent of the winter wheat crop was planted, compared to 67 percent at this time in 2007 and the five-year average of 75 percent. In Oklahoma, 75 percent of the crop was planted, up from 63 percent last year and the five-year average of 73 percent.

In Texas, 70 percent of the crop had been sown, compared with 63 percent last year and the five-year average of 68 percent, USDA reported. Nebraska farmers were 92 percent complete with seeding down from 95 percent in 2007 and the five-year average of 94 percent.

"In the soft red states [eastern Corn Belt], I plant wheat behind beans, so your harvest has drug a little bit," Durchholz said.

Lateness may be of some importance - but "we don't need as much soft red wheat - by a huge margin," he noted.

"Hard red wheat state plantings are going pretty well," he said. "Out west things are pretty normal."

The USDA said 46 percent of the winter wheat crop had emerged, up from 39 percent last year and the five-year average of 44 percent. Last week, 28 percent of the crop had emerged.

In Kansas, 51 percent of the crop had emerged, compared to 34 percent last year and the five-year average of 44 percent. In Texas, 46 percent of the crop had emerged, compared to 33 percent last year and the five-year average of 41 percent.