October 14, 2011

Ukrainian grain production forecast revised up

Ukrainian grain output estimate in 2011 has been raised by three million tonnes, increasing 6% against a month-old forecast to 53.4 million tonnes, according to the USDA.

The estimation of grain export from the country this marketing year, July 2011-June 2012, was also upgraded by one million tonnes tо 24.1 million tonnes.

"USDA adjusted its forecast of the yield at the expense of corn. According to US specialists, Ukraine will harvest 21 million tonnes of this culture, not 18 million tonnes, as it was expected a month ago, out of these, 12 million tonnes will be sent for export," the experts noted.

USDA estimates the wheat yield, as before, at 22 million tonnes. However, specialists reduced its export from nine million tonnes to eight million tonnes, having increased its estimate of internal consumption and carry-over funds by 0.5 million tonnes.

As it was reported in August, USDA upgraded its outlook of the grain yield in Ukraine in 2011 by 11.6% against the July forecast or by 4.9 million tonnes to 47.3 million tonnes, and in September by 6.5% or by 3.1 million tonnes to 50.4 million tonnes.

According to the government forecasts, the grain yield in the country this year will be 52-53 million tonnes, whereas Ukraine harvested 39.3 million tonnes in 2010.