October 14, 2011

Global soy output forecast decreases



The world's 2011-12 soy production forecast has been revised down due to lower estimated output in the US, according to the USDA.


However, the USDA raised its forecast for world corn and wheat output.


In its October world supply-demand report, USDA pegged global soy output in 2011-12 at 258.60 million tonnes, down from the September forecast of 258.99 million tonnes.


Soy production in the US is seen at 83.28 million tonnes as against 83.97 million tonnes a month ago, the report said. The production in the US is expected to be lower due to reduced harvest area and yields, USDA said.


Soy yield in the US is pegged at 41.5 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushels from the September estimate.


USDA estimated the US soy ending stock for 2011-12 at 4.35 million tonnes, compared with the September forecast of 4.48 million tonnes.


Brazil and Argentina's soy output estimate for 2011-12 was kept unchanged at 53 million tonnes and 73.50 million tonnes, respectively.


Global oilseed production for 2011-12 is projected at 453.47 million tonnes, up from 452.98 million tonnes estimated in September mainly due to higher sunflower seed output in the Black Sea region, USDA said.


In the case of corn, the USDA has raised its global output forecast by 5.42 million tonnes to 860.09 million tonnes as the decline in US production is likely to be offset by higher output in China, Russia and Ukraine, the report showed.


Corn production in the US is estimated at 315.81 million tonnes as against the September prediction of 317.44 million tonnes.


Global wheat production estimate has also been raised by 3.08 million tonnes from September's figure to 681.20 million tonnes with increases coming from mainly Australia, the EU and Kazakhstan, the report said.


However, wheat production estimate of the US in 2011-12 was lowered to 54.65 million tonnes from 56.51 million tonnes in September.


Global wheat ending stocks are seen at 202.37 million tonnes in 2011-12, up from 194.59 million tonnes forecast in September.