October 14, 2008
ASA Weekly: USDA reports behind soy exports and positioning
The soy complex closed higher on Thursday, October 9 2008 as the market continued to rebound from the sell-off from recent weeks.
Solid weekly export sales and positioning ahead of the Friday, October 10 2008 USDA reports were also supportive features.
Soymeal futures reflected all of the gains in soy futures as soy oil futures were basically unchanged with the petroleum markets down again.
November bean futures closed up US$5.88, finishing at US$360.08; January gained US$5.97, closing at US$365.78; and March was up US$5.88, ending at US$370.92.
October meal increased US$7.94 closing at US$298.61; December was US$7.94 higher, finishing at US$304.23; and January meal closed up US$7.94, ending at US$307.21.
October soy oil was US$0.88 higher to finish at US$869.49; December was up US$0.44, closing at US$877.21; and January was US$0.22 higher, closing at US$888.89.
USDA launches bonus programme for CRP
US farmers and ranchers will be paid US$3 per acre if they open up land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) to public activities, including hunting and fishing, USDA said last week.
The goal of the initiative is to double public access on CRP land to 2.83 million hectares by 2013.
Currently 1.42 million hectares are enrolled in the program. The incentive will be limited to CRP participants in the 21 states that already have public access programmes. It will also be opened to farmers and ranchers with new or existing reserve contracts.
Overall, some 14 million hectares are enrolled in the CRP. The 2008 Farm Bill set a 12.9 million hectare ceiling for the reserve through 2012.
Government approves extension of Biodiesel tax incentive
The House of Representatives approved HR 1424, the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, which also includes an extension of the biodiesel tax incentive through December 31, 2009.
The incentive was previously set to expire on December 31, 2008. The Senate had already approved the bill on October 1.
The President signed it into law on October 3. The bill also provides that all biodiesel, regardless of the feedstock used to produce the fuel, qualifies for the US$1 per gallon biodiesel incentive.
Currently, biodiesel produced from non-agricultural feedstock, such as yellow grease, is eligible for a US$0.50 per gallon tax incentive.
The bill closes the so-called splash-and-dash loophole with effect form May 15, 2008. Thus, the tax credit is valid for domestically-produced biodiesel only.
The bill also properly defines the US$1 per gallon renewable diesel tax incentive to exclude co-processed renewable diesel.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
　 |
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | ||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2008-09 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2008-09 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2008-09 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
12,229 |
15,617 |
3,811 |
334 |
1,876 |
680 |
2,252 |
3,110 |
3,235 |
|
Production |
86,770 |
70,358 |
79,848 |
48,800 |
46,500 |
50,500 |
59,000 |
61,000 |
62,500 |
|
Imports |
246 |
272 |
272 |
2,336 |
3,325 |
3,450 |
108 |
150 |
160 |
|
Crush |
49,198 |
49,396 |
48,580 |
35,962 |
36,400 |
37,890 |
31,511 |
32,400 |
32,500 |
|
Exports |
30,428 |
31,434 |
27,216 |
12,132 |
13,100 |
14,100 |
23,805 |
25,650 |
27,500 |
|
Other |
4,002 |
1,606 |
4,469 |
1,500 |
1,521 |
1,550 |
2,934 |
2,975 |
3,025 |
|
Usage |
83,628 |
82,436 |
80,265 |
49,594 |
51,021 |
53,540 |
58,250 |
61,025 |
63,025 |
|
Carryout |
15,617 |
3,811 |
3,666 |
1,876 |
680 |
1,090 |
3,110 |
3,235 |
2,870 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
285 |
314 |
272 |
2,003 |
1,144 |
1,610 |
863 |
1,563 |
2,263 |
|
Production |
39,058 |
39,022 |
38,469 |
27,856 |
28,621 |
29,745 |
24,420 |
25,130 |
25,190 |
|
Domestic use |
31,184 |
30,618 |
30,844 |
617 |
640 |
696 |
11,520 |
12,155 |
12,550 |
|
Net Exports |
7,845 |
8,446 |
7,652 |
28,098 |
27,515 |
29,000 |
12,200 |
12,275 |
12,970 |
|
Usage |
39,029 |
39,064 |
38,496 |
28,715 |
28,155 |
29,696 |
23,720 |
24,430 |
25,520 |
|
Carryout |
314 |
272 |
245 |
1,144 |
1,610 |
1,659 |
1,563 |
2,263 |
1,933 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
1,365 |
1,399 |
1,195 |
487 |
310 |
331 |
300 |
341 |
336 |
|
Production |
9,294 |
9,498 |
9,231 |
6,917 |
6,958 |
7,245 |
6,050 |
6,220 |
6,240 |
|
Domestic use |
8,420 |
8,368 |
8,324 |
580 |
995 |
1,170 |
3,550 |
3,895 |
4,048 |
|
Net exports |
840 |
1,334 |
1,043 |
6,514 |
5,942 |
6,035 |
2,459 |
2,330 |
2,190 |
|
Usage |
9,260 |
9,702 |
9,367 |
7,094 |
6,937 |
7,205 |
6,009 |
6,225 |
6,238 |
|
Carryout |
1,399 |
1,195 |
1,059 |
310 |
331 |
371 |
341 |
336 |
338 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 02 October 2008 | ||||||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. |
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. |
|
Exports |
|
Exports | ||||||
|
Barbados |
Soybeans |
1.0 |
2.0 |
|
Philippines |
Soymeal |
74.9 |
0.0 |
|
Canada |
Soybeans |
28.3 |
20.6 |
|
Russia |
Soymeal |
15.0 |
0.0 |
|
China |
Soybeans |
168.8 |
323.9 |
|
Saudi Arabia |
Soymeal |
2.2 |
0.0 |
|
Egypt |
Soybeans |
42.4 |
9.6 |
|
Thailand |
Soymeal |
45.0 |
0.0 |
|
Germany |
Soybeans |
58.1 |
117.5 |
|
Trinidad |
Soymeal |
4.0 |
0.0 |
|
Indonesia |
Soybeans |
4.9 |
37.9 |
|
Turkey |
Soymeal |
17.0 |
0.0 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
94.1 |
175.7 |
|
UAE |
Soymeal |
7.5 |
0.0 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
14.3 |
148.4 |
|
Venezuela |
Soymeal |
26.7 |
0.0 |
|
Philippines |
Soybeans |
0.9 |
1.2 |
|
Australia |
Soyoil |
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
Spain |
Soybeans |
20.0 |
0.0 |
|
Barbados |
Soyoil |
1.1 |
0.0 |
|
Syria |
Soybeans |
27.0 |
0.0 |
|
Canada |
Soyoil |
3.4 |
0.0 |
|
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
74.8 |
82.8 |
|
Colombia |
Soyoil |
5.7 |
0.0 |
|
Turkey |
Soybeans |
38.0 |
0.0 |
|
Cuba |
Soyoil |
5.3 |
0.0 |
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
398.5 |
5.4 |
|
Dom. Rep. |
Soyoil |
0.4 |
0.0 |
|
Colombia |
Soymeal |
69.3 |
0.0 |
|
Guatemala |
Soyoil |
3.8 |
0.0 |
|
Cuba |
Soymeal |
51.0 |
0.0 |
|
Haiti |
Soyoil |
2.8 |
0.0 |
|
Dom. Rep. |
Soymeal |
105.2 |
0.0 |
|
Jamaica |
Soyoil |
7.2 |
0.0 |
|
Ecuador |
Soymeal |
29.9 |
0.0 |
|
Japan |
Soyoil |
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
Egypt |
Soymeal |
15.0 |
0.0 |
|
Lebanon |
Soyoil |
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
F W Ind |
Soymeal |
7.5 |
0.5 |
|
Mexico |
Soyoil |
83.0 |
0.7 |
|
Guatemala |
Soymeal |
165.7 |
0.8 |
|
Mexico |
Soyoil |
83.0 |
0.7 |
|
Honduras |
Soymeal |
35.2 |
0.0 |
|
Nicaragua |
Soyoil |
5.3 |
0.0 |
|
Hong Kong |
Soymeal |
1.3 |
0.4 |
|
Panama |
Soyoil |
0.7 |
0.0 |
|
Indonesia |
Soymeal |
1.1 |
0.0 |
|
Salvador |
Soyoil |
2.8 |
0.0 |
|
Ireland |
Soymeal |
5.0 |
0.0 |
|
Trinidad |
Soyoil |
1.1 |
0.0 |
|
Israel |
Soymeal |
15.8 |
0.0 |
|
Venezuela |
Soyoil |
10.0 |
0.0 |
|
Korea, Rep. |
Soymeal |
55.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lebanon |
Soymeal |
7.5 |
0.0 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
323.1 |
13.1 |
|
Commodity |
Outstanding |
Accum. |
New |
|
Morocco |
Soymeal |
9.3 |
9.3 |
|
Sales |
Exports |
Sales | |
|
Nicaragua |
Soymeal |
8.3 |
0.0 |
|
Soybeans |
10,163.9 |
880.0 |
602.4 |
|
OPAC Is. |
Soymeal |
1.4 |
0.0 |
|
Soymeal |
1,662.5 |
44.2 |
1,706.7 |
|
Peru |
Soymeal |
5.5 |
0.0 |
|
Soyoil |
146.1 |
0.9 |
147.0 |
| NOTE: 2008-2009 Soymeal/Soyoil Marketing Year Began October 1 | ||||||||
