October 13, 2011

French soft wheat stocks forecast increase

French soft wheat inventory's estimate has increased by about 300,000 tonnes for the current 2011/12 season to 2.55 million tonnes, declining 13% from 2010/11 stocks, according to the French farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday (Oct 12).

The rise was linked to a sharp rise in the delivered crop and lower feed uses, which more than annulled the office's 500,000-tonne increase in its forecast for France's soft wheat exports outside the EU this season.

It now expects non-EU exports to reach 8.5 million tonnes, still well below a record 12.9 million last season when French wheat benefited from a Russian ban on grain exports in response to a catastrophic drought.

FranceAgriMer pointed to Libya as one of the destinations where French exports would increase this season.

The office raised by 600,000 tonnes its estimate for the country's delivered crop to 30.5 million tonnes, out of a total output of 33.8 million tonnes already revised upwards on Monday (Oct 10) and it cut by 200,000 tonnes estimated use in animal feed to 5.4 million tonnes.

For corn, FranceAgriMer lifted its forecast of the country's stocks at the end of the season to 2.05 million tonnes against 1.94 million tonnes last month. This would still represent a drop of 8% on year.

Estimates for use of corn in animal feed and exports were revised upwards but by less than the delivered crop which gained nearly 700,000 tonnes at 13.04 million tonnes due to a revision of the total French corn crop at 14.75 million tonnes, against 14.01 million last month.

FranceAgriMer also lifted its estimate of France's 2011/12 barley ending stocks, now expected at 809,000 tonnes against 781,000 tonnes in September, while the durum stock was put at 106,000 tonnes against 65,000 tonnes forecast last month.