USDA reduces pork export forecast

USDA reduced its pork export forecast for 2008 by 125 million pounds to 5.318 billion pounds, (US $214.4 million) to (US$8.8 billion) based on recent weakness in shipments.

Industry analysts have been concerned for weeks that the strengthening dollar, the global recession and China's increased domestic pork production could all weigh on what previously seemed an unstoppable projectile of increasing pork exports.

In its World Supply and Demand Estimates report, USDA also raised its total pork production forecasts for both 2008 and 2009. It put 2008 production at 23.550 billion pounds (US$40.3 billion), up from 23.495 billion pounds (US$40.2 billion) forecast in September. It put 2009 pork production at 23.164 billion pounds (US$39.7 billion), up from 22.999 billion pounds (US$39.4 billion) forecast last month.

USDA said expected increases were stronger in pigs per litter and it has outpaced expected reductions in sow farrowings into early 2009.

USDA raised its 2008 beef export forecast to 1.876 billion pounds (US$3.2 billion) from 1.841 billion (US$3.15 billion) in September. It left the 2009 forecast unchanged at 2.06 billion pounds (US$3.5 billion).

It raised its 2009 total beef production forecast by 100 million pounds (US$171.2 million) to 26.752 billion pounds (US$45.8 billion), saying higher expected placements in late 2008 will likely translate into higher fed beef production next year.