October 12, 2011


China's broiler consumption seen flat in 2012 



China's broiler consumption in 2012 is expected to remain stagnant at 10 kg per person on average, but up 1kg from 2010 levels, according to the latest poultry GAIN report from the Beijing office of USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).


In 2010, total broiler consumption would likely reach 13.555 million tonnes, according to the October 7 edition of the National Chicken Council's Washington Report. Both per capita and total consumption exclude "claws" (feet-paws), FAS stated.


FAS forecast China's broiler meat imports in 2012 to decline 13% to 200,000 tonnes (not including chicken claws), following an estimated 20% decline this year. The decline is mainly attributed to the anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) on US broiler product exports to China.


In both 2011 and 2012, chicken claw imports will continue to dominate China's total broiler product imports, accounting for more than two-thirds of China's total broiler product imports. Claw imports in 2011 are forecast at nearly 300,000 tonnes, a 42% decline from 2010, as a result of the anti-dumping and countervailing measures against US exports to China.


In 2012, Chinese broiler meat imports from the US (not including chicken claws) are forecast to drop 20% to an estimated 24,000 tonnes following an expected 51% decline in 2011. Chicken claw imports from the US are forecast to decline 15% to 21,500 tonnes following a 75% decline estimated for 2011. US product including broiler meat and claws in 2009 accounted for 85% of China's total broiler product imports. The US share is currently only 10%. Limited volumes of US claw shipments will continue because of the AD and CVD duties in spite of strong market prices in China.


Higher shipments from South America cannot completely offset sharply lower imports from the United States because of capacity limitations on South American products. In addition, traders are reporting that quality is sometimes uneven on South American products compared to other suppliers. With tighter import supplies due to the AD/CVD duties against US exports to China, broiler import prices have risen markedly.

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