October 11, 2021
China's total feed, residual use of grains to reach 273.0 million tonnes in 2021/22
The total feed and residual use of grains in China's marketing year (MY) 2021/22 is forecast at 273.0 million tonnes, an increase of 5.5 million tonnes, or only 2% over MY 2020/21.
Overall feed production is projected to rise slightly during the remainder of 2021 and into 2022 as the poultry sector expands to meet growing demand and the swine herd contracts.
China's hog production is forecast to decline by 5% in 2022 though greater concentration is expected in large-scale operations using professional feed formulas.
Corn production for MY 2021/22 is forecast at 272 million tonnes as production losses caused by natural disasters in the North China Plain in July 2021 were not fully offset by better yields projected in Northeast China.
China’s marketing year (MY) 2021/22 corn import forecast is 20 million tonnes while its estimate for corn imports in MY 2020/21 is raised to 30 million tonnes. As the feed sector sources cheaper feed grain alternatives and growth in feed demand increases at a slower rate, demand for imported corn is expected to moderate.
The forecast for MY 2021/22 feed corn and residual use is 211 million tonnes, 15 million tonnes more than the MY 2020/21 estimate, as feed mills are expected to switch back to corn rations.
Wheat prices are US$30.75 per tonne lower than corn. If the price gap narrows further, feed mills are expected to increase corn use, as corn has been the preferred feed ingredient.
MY 2020/21 corn feed and residual use is estimated at 196 million tonnes, only three million tonnes higher than last marketing year despite hog restocking.
Industry experts project more than 40 million tonnes of alternative grains were substituted for corn in feed rations.