October 6, 2011


US corn yield forecast decreases



US corn yield outlook has been decreased from 151 bushels per acre (bpa) to 149.5 and corn output is projected at 12.519 billion bushels by Analytical firm Informa Economics on Wednesday (Oct 5), according to trade sources.


The estimates are above the USDA's current estimates for a corn yield of 148.1 bpa and production of 12.497 billion bushels.


USDA was scheduled to release updated US and world crop estimates on October 12.


Informa said in a note to clients that it cut its corn yield figures for North Dakota and New York last month but raised its estimates for Nebraska and Missouri. The firm also noted that US corn condition ratings fell in North Dakota and Minnesota in September due to a freeze.


For soy, Informa raised its estimate of the average US 2011 yield to 41.8 bpa, from 41.5 previously, and projected US soy production at 3.087 billion bushels.


Informa's soy yield figure matches USDA's current estimate while Informa's soy production number is just above USDA's estimate of 3.085 billion bushels.


Informa said US soy condition ratings have improved slightly in recent weeks although the mid-September freeze hurt crops in the northern Midwest.


Based on acreage certification data from USDA's Farm Service Agency, Informa said it expected USDA on October 12 to cut its estimate of US area planted to corn by 430,000 acres, and raise soy planted area by 70,000 acres.


Earlier this week, another closely watched firm, commodity brokerage INTL FC Stone, estimated the US corn yield at 148.7 bpa and production at 12.553 billion bushels. INTL FC Stone pegged the US soy yield at 42.8 bpa and production at 3.157 billion bushels.

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