September 30, 2024

Severe frosts threaten wheat production in southern Australia, raising global supply concerns

Severe frosts have jeopardised wheat fields in Australia's southern and south-eastern regions, which were expected to contribute over 10% of the country's wheat production amid growing concerns over dryness affecting western areas of the country, Bloomberg reported.

Temperatures plunged to as low as minus 2°C this month, impacting approximately 1.2 million hectares of wheat fields, primarily in New South Wales, according to crop forecaster Digital Agricultural Services. Frost can be particularly harmful to wheat crops that are in their final growth stage before harvest, which in Australia typically begins in November.

Initially, the region was expected to produce 3.2 million tonnes of wheat. However, yields could drop by anywhere between 10% and 60%, said Sam Atkinson, chief data scientist at the Melbourne-based firm. He also warned that crop quality could decline, but it would be difficult to assess the full impact until the harvest begins. The towns of Temora, Wagga Wagga, and Young were identified as the worst affected.

Australia had forecast this season's wheat crop at 31.8 million tonnes. However, dry conditions in the west of the country, combined with the recent frosts, could reduce overall output to less than 29 million tonnes, according to Atkinson. This decline in wheat supply could exacerbate global concerns, as wheat stockpiles are expected to shrink to their lowest level in nine years.

Farmer Daniel Keam, who grows grain and pulses, had already faced challenges due to dry weather in recent months. Last week, he noticed that some of his wheat plants had started turning white. Since then, the upper parts of some wheat heads have frozen, and he now anticipates producing 25% less wheat than originally projected.

Some farmers near Wallup, a small town halfway between Adelaide and Melbourne, have fared worse, according to Keam. "They're having to cut their wheat in hopes to sell it as hay just to break even," he said. In many instances, frost had developed along the entire wheat stem, disrupting the plant's ability to absorb nutrients, and eventually causing it to die.

The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast further frosts in South Australia's Murraylands district and some southern parts of New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory.

In addition to wheat, frost has affected more than 350,000 hectares of barley crops, which were expected to produce 1 million tonnes, and 540,000 hectares of canola, with an estimated output of 1.25 million tonnes, Atkinson reported.

-      The Business Post