September 30, 2008
CBOT November soy futures hit 6-month low
November soy futures at the CBOT hit a fresh six-month low of US$10.94 3/4 a bushel Monday morning and nearly fell the daily trading limit of 70 cents.
Prices also dropped below major psychological support at US$11.00 a bushel and below what was strong technical support at the mid-September low of US$10.99 1/2.
November soy are still in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart from the July contract high of US$16.36 3/4.
Bears have gained fresh downside near-term technical momentum amid bearishly postured key outside markets to start the week, namely a stronger US dollar and sharply lower crude oil prices. Grain traders will continue to keep one eye on these important outside markets.
The next downside price objective for the soy bears is to produce a close below strong technical support at the April 1 spike low of US$10.45 1/4. Below that lies major psychological support at US$10.00 a bushel.
For the bean bulls to begin to regain some fresh upside near-term technical momentum they would have to produce a close above strong technical resistance at the August low of US$11.68 a bushel.