September 24, 2008

   

US Crop Progress Wrap: Corn maturity lags as harvest starts

The maturity of the US corn crop remains well behind average, while early harvest activity has slowly begun in some states, the US Department of Agriculture said Monday (September 22) in its weekly crop progress report.

 

The development of soy also continues to lag behind normal, the agency said. Meanwhile, winter wheat planting advanced, with the crop seen as off to a good start.

 

The weekly report should not cause waves in US grain or soybean futures markets Tuesday, as traders are focused on outside influences, such as fluctuations in crude oil and the US dollar, an analyst said.

 

Fundamental factors, such as crop development, are in the back seat, he said.

  

The USDA said 33 percent of the US corn crop was mature, down from 76 percent in 2007 and the average of 63 percent. In Iowa, the top corn-growing state, 23 percent of the crop was mature, down from 81 percent last year and the average of 68 percent.

 

In Illinois, 31 percent of the crop was mature, down from 94 percent last year and the average of 77 percent, according to the USDA. Indiana's crop was 40 percent mature, down from 73 percent in 2007 and the average of 59 percent.

 

Warmer temperatures in the Midwest this week should help the crop develop, said Joe Victor, vice president of marketing at Allendale. The lack of a frost or freeze in near-term forecasts removes that threat for the time being, he said.

 

"Maturity does need to get up and go," he said.

 

The US crop was 90 percent dented, down from 98 percent in 2007 and the average of 95 percent, according to the USDA. In Iowa, 85 percent of the crop was dented, down from 97 percent last year and the average of 97 percent.

 

The USDA said 59 percent of the total crop was in good-to-excellent condition, down from 61 percent last week. Iowa's crop was rated 61 percent good to excellent, down from 63 percent last week.

 

In Illinois, the good-to-excellent rating remained unchanged at 66 percent. Indiana's crop was rated 53 percent good to excellent, down from 55 percent last week.

 

Overall, the lower condition rating should not be a big concern to the market, Victor said. Leaves are turning colour, and the bigger focus is on the crop's maturity, he said.

 

"As far as the appearance, I really would not put much stock into a 2 percentage-point decline," he said.

 

The US corn harvest began slowly last week in some states. Illinois' crop was 1 percent harvested, well below the average of 19 percent, while Indiana's crop was 3 percent harvested, below the average of 10 percent. Iowa's harvest had not yet begun, although 4 percent of the crop is usually harvested by now, the USDA said.

 

The lack of rain expected in the Delta region this week should be helpful for harvest activity in early harvesting states, Victor said.

 

The USDA said 44 percent of the soy crop was dropping leaves, below 70 percent in 2007 and the average of 64 percent. In Iowa, 43 percent of the crop was dropping leaves, down from 75 percent last year and the average of 73 percent.

 

In Illinois, 24 percent of the crop was dropping leaves, down from 79 percent in 2007 and the average of 64 percent, according to the USDA. Indiana had 60 percent of its crop dropping leaves, down from 76 percent last year and the average of 68 percent.

 

"With the absence of any threat of frost freeze this week and warming temperatures, it's building a little bit of a comfort zone, so to speak, so that we're at least missing that threat," Victor said.

 

The good-to-excellent rating for soy remained unchanged from last week at 57 percent, the USDA said. Analysts had expected the rating to remain steady.

 

In Iowa, 58 percent of the crop was seen as good to excellent, down from 60 percent last week. Illinois' crop was rated 63 percent good to excellent, the same as a week ago. Indiana's crop was rated 46 percent good to excellent, down one percentage point from last week.

 

There should be "no major worries or concerns about the condition" of the soy crop, with more focus being placed on development, Victor said.

 

 

The US winter wheat crop was 22 percent planted, below the 24 percent planted at the same time last year and the average of 30 percent. A week ago, 11 percent of the crop was seeded.

 

There is good soil moisture for seeding in the southern Plains, Victor said.

 

Planting is "off to a good start," he said.

 

Texas' crop was 22 percent planted, above the 16 percent planted last year but below the average of 33 percent. In Oklahoma, 20 percent of the crop was planted, down from 21 percent last year and the average of 31 percent. Kansas' crop was 12 percent seeded, down from 14 percent in 2007 and the average of 20 percent.

    

The US spring wheat harvest was 97 percent complete, down from 100 percent complete in 2007 and on par with the average. A week ago, 92 percent of the crop was cut, according to the USDA.

 

North Dakota's crop was 97 percent harvested, compared to last year when the crop was fully cut. The average is 96 percent.