September 23, 2008

Australian beef export volume and value will fall this fiscal year ending June 30, 2009, due to tight supplies and a decline in exports to North Asia as competition from the US increases, according to a forecast released by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE).

Australian beef exports this fiscal year are expected to reach 910,000 tonnes at US$3.4 billion, down from 930,000 tonnes at US$3.5 billion last fiscal year, ABARE said.

ABARE expects the number of cattle slaughtered will fall 0.9 percent to 8.7 million head this fiscal year from 8.8 million last year, leading to beef output declining to 2.14 million tonnes this year from about 2.16 million tonnes last fiscal year. 

However, demand for Australian beef in emerging markets such as Russia and Indonesia is expected to remain strong, which would offset the projected lower demand in other markets, ABARE said.

ABARE said an easing of import restriction is expected to lead to South Korea importing more US beef and less Australian beef.

Live cattle shipments this fiscal year is forecast to decline to 700,000 from 714,000 last fiscal year, reflecting higher cattle prices and reduced availability. Indonesia's demand for live cattle will remain strong, ABARE said.

Australia is the world's second largest beef exporter after Brazil.