September 21, 2011


High soy stocks to increase global supplies



In spite of lower soy output in major producers including the US, high soy supplies will raise global inventories in approaching months, according to Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World Tuesday (Sep 20).


"World soy supplies will still rise in the first half of this season because of the prospective decline in northern hemisphere but production will be more than offset by the ample world stocks which are up by 10.1 million tonnes from last year as of September 1, 2011," Oil World said.


Global 2011/12 soy production is likely to total 260.93 million tonnes, below estimated season consumption of 265.91 million tonnes, Oil World forecast.


The US 2011/12 soy crop is likely to fall to 83.97 million tonnes from 90.61 million tonnes in 2010/11, Oil World forecasts. China's soy crop is also forecast to fall to 13.70 million tonnes from 14.60 million tonnes last season.


But globally, soy stocks are estimated by Oil World at 75.90 million tonnes, up 10.1 million tonnes on September 2010.


The September 2011 stocks are largely concentrated in South America and include 26.04 million tonnes in Brazil and 25.75 million tonnes in Argentina, it said. Stocks in the two key South American countries are 8.1 million tonnes up on year, it estimates.


"This will result in larger than usual South American exports of soy and products in September/December 2011," it said.


Oil World has warned that soy prices could fall in the near term.


"A price setback in the near term may also be caused by concern that export demand for US soy and corn will turn out stronger than expected, partly due to high prices and larger export supplies from other origins such as South America and Black Sea," it said.

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